Since the commencement of the electioneering campaign process towards the general elections which kicks off next week, loyalists and supporters of some of the political parties and many other faceless Nigerians, have, through their actions, body language, speeches, advertisements and documentaries, been fanning the embers of war ahead of the elections. They have been threatening fire and brimstone. From the North to the South of the country, the situation remains the same. Palpable tension is in the air, so thick that it could be sliced with a butter knife.
As this column wrote last week, as a result of this tension in the land, quite a good number of people are already voting with their feet. They are relocating their families out of the country or back to their respective villages over the fear of imminent violence. Not even assurances by top officials of government and other agencies are enough to dissuade the mass exodus from perceived hotspots in the country. From discussions everywhere you go to in the country these days, it is clear that since 1999, Nigerians have not witnessed any election as tension-soaked and keenly contested as next week’s presidential election.
The election fever is not evident in the country alone as the international community has also been caught up in the trajectory. Quite recently, John Kerry, the United States Secretary of State, had to dash down to Nigeria to meet with the two frontline Presidential candidates – President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples’ Democratic Party and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives’ Congress – as well as officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. His message was that the international community is watching Nigeria and that peaceful and timely elections were vital to the continued existence of the country as well as peace in the West African sub-region.
Obviously, there were other underlining factors that prompted Kerry’s visit. But if he was economical with words during his visit, the events that took place shortly after his departure showed that the country may well be sitting on a keg of gunpowder. Few hours after Kerry’s departure, President Jonathan’s campaign train moved to Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, the epicentre of the Boko Haram terrorists’ onslaught in the Northeast of the country. Borno is one of the three northeastern states under emergency rule. With elaborate security arrangement provided by ground troops and the Airforce, complete with roving helicopter gunships, the president managed to complete his campaign and departed from the city. Unfortunately, hours after, Maiduguri became a battle zone as Boko Haram terrorists, attacking from three flanks, descended on the city like a swarm of bees. It took heavy military reinforcement and bombardments, coupled with a curfew, to clear the city of the daring and deadly invaders.
With this ever-present threat of violence from Boko Haram and the hate preaching by politicians all over the place, the country’s path seems to be littered with landmines. In fact, the threat from Boko Haram is only the most dramatic aspect of a situation in which almost every line on the chart of national stability is heading in the wrong direction. Falling oil prices have eroded government revenue, leading to raids on the sovereign wealth fund and pointing to a not too distant moment when governments at all levels – federal, state and local government – may be unable to pay those who work for them or even to maintain essential services. And this is happening in an energy-rich country where, for example, there is no reliable electricity supply, something that is very disastrous for economic survival and other social services.
The truth is that as resources shrink, the hydra-headed monster called corruption will certainly get worse, leaving even far less available for legitimate purposes. Right now, in spite of significant increases in defence spending, troops who are battling terrorists in the north of the country are still without adequate equipment and, in some cases, even proper kits and regular supplies of food and ammunition. The police are not faring any better as no money has been allocated to them for the elections, leading to the usual speculation that the money earmarked for defence and security, may have developed wings.
///////////////////////////
‘With this ever-present threat of violence from Boko Haram and the hate preaching by politicians all over the place, the country’s path seems to be littered with landmines’
///////////////////////////
Apart from this, there is a sharp division between the political parties, on virtually every issue and all the issues about the forthcoming elections. The division between the parties has largely followed primordial ethnic and religious fault lines – north and south, Christian and Muslim, to mention only the most obvious – which rather than easing, have been deepening in recent years. Perhaps, of greater worry is the ready recourse of politicians to unleash menacingly-looking thugs, all brandishing dangerous weapons and missiles, on innocent people. While some of the campaigns have been marred by violence and may get worse in the days ahead, some ethnic bigots are also threatening to spill blood if their candidate is unsuccessful in the coming election. My fear is that if the situation is not urgently checked, the nation may soon be embroiled in violence of unimaginable proportion.
With this sordid scenario, like I said earlier, the country’s path in the weeks ahead is laden with landmines. Even if the country manages to scale through the elections without the worst happening, the result of the elections may come under serious litigation. If this happens and the government fails to move quickly to defuse tension as well as arrest the looming fiscal crisis, such a weakened government would find it even harder to put in place adequate military architecture to combat the growing menace of the terrorists ravaging the northeast part of the country. The terrorists could as well intensify their attacks during the election period to create maximum confusion and disorder.
In his historic election campaign en route the 2008 American presidential elections, Barack Hussein Obama, the incumbent President of the United States of America, demonstrated that with boldness and unwavering commitment to a cause, victory can indeed be achieved. That unwavering commitment as chronicled in his now famous book, The Audacity of Hope, singled him out as a man who knows his onions and just where to fix them. It painted Obama as a person who had a vision for America, a vision rooted in the values that have always made America the last bastion of hope in the world. Unfortunately, now that the 2015 general election in Nigeria is right here at our doorstep, we are yet to recognise such vision dripping with patriotic fervor in our politicians even as they crisscross the entire length and breadth of the country wooing and cajoling voters to give them their votes.
For several months before his eventual election as president in 2008, Obama held meetings across the country with all manners of people on front porches and family farms; in the basements of churches and at town hall meetings. The people he met knew that it wasn’t possible that government alone can solve all their problems and they never expected it to be so. Instead, the people believed in personal responsibility, hard work and self reliance. They also believed in fairness, opportunity and the responsibilities they have to one another. They believed in an America where good jobs are there for the willing, where hard work is rewarded with a decent living and they also recognised the fundamental truth that a sound economy requires thriving businesses and flourishing families. However, what they will not take is to see their tax dollars going down the drain or private pockets as we witness too often in Nigeria.
In a globalised world that changes every now and then, forging this kind of future like that of the Americans in a place like Nigeria can never be a tea party. In other words, it will never come easily. It requires new ways of thinking, of doing things and a new spirit of patriotism. That is exactly what is expected of Nigeria and Nigerians and not the growing audacity for violence. Although, the country has, several times proved the doomsayers wrong before now, it however, remains to be seen if the present worsening odds against it could also pass away without causing a major catastrophe in the polity.
