by Dakuku Peterside .
Nigerian politicians are notoriously optimistic. That is a source of
energy for them, but it also blurs out their reality. The optimism of
the average Nigerian politician often conflict with the disillusionment
and pessimism of the average Nigerian. As the country prepares for
the 2023 general elections, politicians will give permutations that
put their candidates and party ahead of others. They believe their
understanding of the different constituencies and demographics is
nearly unassailable. One constituency that is growing but political
parties pay little attention to is the community of undecided voters.
In this forthcoming 2023 election, where especially in the
presidential election, there seems to be a three-horse race that has
polarised the nation and forced some even to predict a run-off
election, the importance of undecided voters is evident. All parties
are campaigning not only to galvanize their bases but also to woo
undecided, swing, and floating voters to support their sides.
Whether undecided voters are receptive to campaigns and how
they end up voting—if they turn out at all—often proves pivotal in
deciding elections.
Recent polls show that there are high number of registered voters
who are undecided. ANAP foundation commissioned an opinion poll
released in September 2022 that has this to say about undecided
voters; “Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their
preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32% and 15%,
respectively”. ANAP’s poll findings are corroborated by the results
of another poll conducted by Bloomberg News in the same month of
September, which suggest that the percentage of undecided voters
is around 17 to 45% depending on whether you add those who
refuse to reveal their candidate of choice or not. Yet other data from
NexTier poll conducted among rural-based voters in 12 states
further suggest that 19.8% of voters or one-fifth of voters polled are
yet to make up their minds. The reasonable inference to draw from
these three credible polls is that undecided voters may turn out to
be the underrated decider of the direction the pendulum of the 2023
elections will swing.
In ordinary parlance and applicable in other climes, undecided
voters are not sentimentally attached to any political party, have not
decided whom to vote for in the elections or are politically inactive.
In the Nigerian context, it means this and more. It includes those
disillusioned with the current system, structures and actors, who are
not convinced that parties and candidates are in no material way
different from the current leaders. This group hardly votes, and
when they do, they tend to vote for anti-establishment parties or
candidates that offer them hope of changing or overhauling the
current political orthodoxy. Also, it includes professionals and first-
time voters with no ethnic bias, who prefer to
objectively analyse the country’s situation and choose the candidate
they believe best represents their idea of the ideal. This group are
not bugged down with party affiliations and ethnoreligious bias.
They are young, urban, and dynamic. Although not very politically
astute, they are interested in influencing governance through their
votes, and any candidate or party that convinces them that they
share similar values and aspirations wins their votes. Besides, it
also includes a nuanced group that is peculiarly Nigerian, and they
wait for money, patronage and clientelism as the desideratum and
inducement for choosing whom to vote for. Unfortunately, this group
is substantial because of the economic situation in the country and
past experiences with politicians.
This divergent categorization of undecided voters makes it very
difficult for campaigners to target them effectively and influence
their voting decision. It is often difficult to simultaneously narrow
core issues of interest to various undecided voters. Identifying their
core “hunger” tip them towards voting at the election and voting for
a particular candidate or party. We are noticing in the
election campaign, especially the presidential election campaigns,
that no candidate has made them a core electoral group to target,
and we have yet to see any campaign strategy that aims to convert
votes from this political demographic.
Campaigns are less issue-based and often target the electorate
based on ethnic, urban-rural dichotomy or religious sentiments,
which heats the polity and fans the embers of our fault lines as a
country. I am bold to say that such trivializing of campaign
messages because of intemperate languages and innuendos has
alienated more voters, and more are yet to make up their minds on
whom to vote for because they are not adequately informed about
candidates’ policy thrust and ideologies to make decisions as to
who to vote or not.
What do these undecided voters want?
What undecided voters want to make up their minds to participate in
voting and decide whom to vote for is simple, depending on what is
making them undecided. For undecided voters waiting for good
campaign information on issues facing the country and possible
solutions from all candidates to make up their minds, they need vital
information and a clear roadmap on how candidates intend to tackle
challenges facing the country. Unfortunately, more is required to
cover most undecided voters sufficiently. Unfortunately, some
undecided voters can only vote for someone because of clear
direction from their political patrons and leaders who decide whom
to vote. These leaders either use loyalty to group interest ,
monetary enticement or political patronage to influence their choice.
This is dangerous for our democracy. The physical manifestation of
this phenomenon is seen in the vote-buying exercise. And this has
become the bane of our elections. When vote buying happens, the
voter has sold their inalienable franchise to a candidate irrespective
of the candidate’s pedigree, leadership experience, and an
understanding of the country’s problems and how to solve them.
INEC, in collaboration with the federal government and other
stakeholders, to minimize, if not wholly eradicate, vote buying in the
2023 elections.
Election is a game of number. The higher the number of votes a
candidate wins, the better the candidate’s electoral fortunes.
Undecided voters, when converted, give the candidate the extra
votes he needs to win the election. This is especially important in a
tight race where the vote margins for victory are so small. The 2023
general elections promise to be a tight race given our political
realities, especially the nature and calibre of the presidential
candidates of the major political parties. This is the first time in this
democratic dispensation that the presidential candidates of the
three major parties are from the major ethnic groups in Nigeria. This
is also the first time in this dispensation that a Muslim-Muslim ticket
emerged. This has made this election, as seen in the campaign so
far, an ethnoreligious contest and candidates are not helping
matters because they are resorting to ethnicity and religion for
political advantages. However, the undecided voters, with
substantial margins of about 20-30% are still undecided. Any
candidate that gets most of the 30 per cent undecided voter’s votes
may win the election.
The importance of undecided votes is evident in recent elections’
poor turnout. In the 2015 presidential elections, we had about
43.5% turnout, and the 2019 presidential elections had just about
34% turnout. Even in the recent off-cycle elections, the turnout is
about 30%. With voter turnout hovering around 30-35%, serious
engagement and mobilization of the undecided will swing victory to
a candidate. Besides, INEC confirms that newly registered
voters, most of them are political neophytes with no party
affiliations, are about 9.5 million. This number, when properly
cultivated, may swing the votes to a candidate and lead him to
victory at the polls. The sheer size of the undecided and newly
registered voters mean it must be a gold mine for politicians in this
election because, when properly harnessed, these votes will make
the difference between winning and losing.
We expect that a significant number of voters will make up their
minds during the campaign. So far, the campaigns could have been
more impressive and the campaign could have been issue-based.
The parties and candidates have at least 12 weeks to effectively
woo these voters who may influence the outcome of the elections.
They must develop real messages that speak to the concerns of
those dissatisfied with the country’s current state of socio-economic
conditions and provide credible alternative policy roadmap. Key
actors seeking votes must build trust by attracting credible voices to
campaign for the parties and candidates, as jesters cannot impress
the public that has suffered serial disappointments. Influencers and
celebrities will help but will not be an alternative to well-thought-out
policy messages. Grassroots mobilization strategies cannot be
replaced by hysteria, fanfare, street parade or opponents’ abuse.
Our politicians can afford to be more serious than they are currently
doing. The current situation does not inspire much hope.
Candidates and parties must make it a priority not to neglect
undecided voters. They hold the key to victory in this tight race to Aso rock
