I was in Benin Republic in 2010 when INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, presented the budget for the 2011 election to the National Assembly. From far away Bohicon, I could feel the heat of public resentment over what many Nigerians termed “excessive cost of conducting 2011 general elections”. That was when it dawned on me that there was very little civic and voter education in Nigeria. I also reminded myself of the very parlous ruins in our education sector. How come that many Nigerians do not understand the nexus between credible elections, accountable leadership, good governance and sustainable development? If Nigerians really understood what democracy means, the pillars upon which a virile democratic system rests and the benefits a working democracy confers, I do not think there would have been such earth shaking public uproar against Jega’s plan to spend about N100 billion to clean up the coterie of deeply entrenched cobwebs within Nigeria’s electoral space. Quite instructively, as the Secretary of the Planning Committee for the Labour-Civil Society Coalition on ‘Iwu Must Go” campaign, I had experienced firsthand the amount of sheer will it takes to make a significant dent on a roguish public establishment. Today, Nigerians can compare and contrast between a Maurice Iwu led INEC and the current INEC under Professor Jega. Is it Uhuru with Nigeria’s electoral process? No! But there appears to be some kind of progress towards fostering a credible electoral system in Nigeria.
Professor Jega’s INEC is currently under fire. Unlike Professor Maurice Iwu who was consistently up in arms against the Nigerian people, it appears that Professor Attahiru Jega is in combat with Nigeria’s petty political bourgeoisie. They want the head of Jega. They do not trust him to safeguard their political fiefdoms. Many Nigerians are not miffed at this. If such is not the protein base of the DNA of Nigeria’s evanescent political order, I wonder what else would be. I am however alarmed at the reasons for which prominent leaders in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) want Jega’s head handed over to them on a platter. The first reason that assailed the air was that majority of registered voters had not collected their PVCs. It appeared that pockets of what appeared to be organized public grumbling over the PVCs agglutinated into an audacious salvo when Nigeria’s National Security Adviser at the hallowed chambers of Chatham House called for a postponement of February 14 and 28 general elections. Almost at the same time, the Southern Peoples Assembly issued a fatwa on Professor Jega calling for his removal, arrest, prosecution and some jail time. What was Jega’s offence? The former ASUU President was accused of conniving with the All Progressive Congress (APC) to rig the 2015 general elections. All of these ‘coincided’ with a meeting of the National Council of State. It was rumoured that the agenda was to force a postponement of the February elections. When that plot failed, the desperate crew moved the cast to INEC. This time it was no longer PVC but security. INEC was forced to act. The rest is history.
A cursory look at the reasons proffered by Jega’s persecutors on why they want the 2015 general election postponed infinitum only cascades waves of shocks down the spine. The algorithm reads very unequivocally; Nigeria’s democracy is in dire straits. There are plenty of fiction and little on facts. First, on the issue of Permanent Voters Card (PVC), there is nothing in our Constitution and Electoral Act that specifies the total number of eligible voters that must be enrolled in the voters register before elections can take place. The right to exercise ones franchise is in the eyes of our laws crucial but unenforceable. This means that Nigerians are at liberty to exercise their right to vote or refrain from doing same. Still on the PVC, many PDP stalwarts have accused INEC of deliberately manipulating PVC distribution to favor the APC. I am concerned that truth is being dangerously tweaked. An analysis of information provided on INEC website and Election Monitor blog shows that PVCs distributed or made available for collection by INEC in states controlled by the PDP stood at 25, 316, 462. This represents a total of 59% of PVCs produced then by INEC. States under the control of APC were given 16, 240, 875 PVCs representing 38% of distributed PVCs. APGA ranks third with a total of 1, 222, 002 PVCs (3%). In terms of PVCs actually collected by voters, PDP was also in the lead before the postponement of the February elections. A total of 22, 961, 668 had been collected by voters in PDP states. Voters in APC states had collected a total of 14, 949, 976 PVCs while voters in Anambra State had picked up a total of 862, 747 PVCs.
Curiously, during the first and second phase of PVCs distribution by INEC, PDP states had 90% and 58% inclusion rates respectively. The implication of this is that APC states, including the two most populous states in Nigeria; Lagos and Kano, were left out of PVC distribution till late in the day. This apparently explains the high number of PVCs that are yet to be picked in the two states. In Lagos state as at January 27, 2015 out of 5, 822, 207 registered voters, only 2, 267, 039 voters had collected their PVCs. This represents a paltry 38.9% PVC pick up and indeed the lowest in the country. In Kano state, out of 4, 975, 701 registered voters only 2, 612, 400 voters (52.5%) had picked up their PVCs. Simple logic demands that more populous states should be given an early head start to allow more people pick up their PVCs. INEC did not do that. APC did not complain. PDP has been the one crying wolf. The fact is that the total number of Lagos and Kano PVCs (5, 918, 469) still trapped in INEC vaults as at January 27, 2015 combined is more than 5,646, 542 voters in the South East who have collected their PVCs. It is also important to point out that this is not the first time PVCs would be used in elections in Nigeria. INEC used the PVCs during the 2014 Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections. Out of a voting population of 732, 021 in Ekiti, INEC was only able to distribute 476, 870 PVCs. This represents 65% distribution success. Yet, INEC was not “whitemailed” into postponing Ekiti election. In Osun State, INEC recorded 70.1% PVC pick up, yet postponing Osun election was never contemplated. Why all these melodrama now?
Perhaps the broth to scuttle the 2015 general elections and truncate Nigeria’s democracy became evidently palpable with allegations by the Southern Nigerian Peoples Assembly (SNPA). Leaders of the SNPA alleged that a lopsided distribution of PVCs was deliberately skewed to favor the North and obviously the APC. One would have dismissed such an allegation as laughable but for some of the personalities mentioned as the protagonists of the SNPA. The truth is that apart from Lagos and Ogun states, which interestingly are APC states, most states in the South have far more favourable PVC collection rate than many states in the North. Furthermore, a comparison of the variance of total enrollment in the 2011 and 2015 voters’ registers shows a net gain by the South over the North. As a result of INEC introduction of AFIS technology which removed questionable entries from the voters roll, the North recorded a total loss of 4, 803, 058 voters while Southern states made a total gain of 108, 494 voters between 2011 and 2015. As a matter of fact, if there is any region in Nigeria to complain of de-population of its voter base, it is the north. Curiously, not much whimper of protest has come from the north over the de-population of its voting population by commendable steps taken by INEC to clean up the voters register. The question then is “why are the PDP and some leaders from Southern states complaining?” Clearly, it is more plausible and convenient for the North to be complaining. Is the current silence by the North ominous? Time will tell. Our history must not be allowed to repeat itself.
Given the vehemence of new threats to disrupt the general elections now rescheduled for March 28, 2014 and April 11, 2015, it is important for Nigerians to read the hand writing on the wall more circumspectly. The confession by Jega that the sanctity of the March 28 election does not even lie in the hands of INEC gives a lot of cause for concern. Not a few Nigerians are perturbed that prophesies of the disintegration of Nigeria might perhaps shame the Nostradamus of this world. Many Nigerians are worried that the martial demo of 7th February, 2015 might be replayed. This time, it might be for real. The consequences would be very grave. All over Nigeria, the lines of ethno-religious divisions are widening by the day. The hardliners have already taken positions. They only await the right signal. Rwanda is on my mind. Somalia is not far from my dreams. My fear become heightened when I watch the made in Okirika “James Bond” movie. My heart skips when I watch clips of our youth armed with machetes and escorting politicians in Borno. The campaign has drenched the whole country with gasoline. Only a lighter is needed for the bonfire to begin. Are you a prayer warrior? Now is the time to intensify prayers. We must pray and warn those ganging up against the sovereignty of the Nigerian people to exercise significant restraint especially given the fact that the grounds for their evil schemes are evidently tenuous. Credible and peaceful elections must be allowed to hold. Winners must emerge. Losers must accept the verdict of Nigerian voters. The bigger picture must remain Nigeria! The courts, politicians, civil society, the media, security institutions and the electorate must find consensus on this.
Comrade Asuzu Echezona
National Coordinator, Young Patriots
