by Dakuku Peterside
Nigeria’s nascent democratic journey has lasted for 24
uninterrupted years, the first time in its history. Previous democratic
interregnums did not last long enough due to incessant military
incursions into governance to give us enough time and data to
evaluate its impact on society. The debate on the success or failure
of our democracy is raging, and opponents have enough data to
back their claims. The jury still needs to be out on that.
However,
we have made some progress in our democracy, but many
Nigerians are yet to connect personally with democratic values and
dividends, making them question the idea and practice of
democracy – or at least the Nigerian brand of democracy.
If the 2023 election campaign has done nothing else, it has spurred
widespread calls for reform and renewal in just about every sector
and institution in our country and to do things differently. Almost
everything in these tumultuous election months – hyperinflation,
economic crisis, deep poverty, poorly implemented currency
exchange, fuel scarcity, high rate of “Japa” – grew out of problems
swept under the rug for decades. Now the need to do things
differently is urgent and imperative. The case for a reset is
compelling and will require courage, clarity, and creativity. What
matters to Nigerians is responsible, timely, and evidence-driven
actions. This is what the incoming government owes Nigerians.
A quick critical review of the performance of our democracy in the
core facets of society reveals startling facts as further justification
for the call for a complete and total reset of our democratic
governance to be fit for purpose. These facets include the
economy, security, education, unemployment, social cohesion,
morality and ethics, and healthcare. However, this column will focus
on the economy and unemployment and visit the other issues in
subsequent articles. Comparing the economic statistics in 1999 with
that of 2022 will reveal some form of growth that, in isolation, may
look like tremendous progress. Economists attribute the growth we
experienced between 1999 to 2013 to oil and gas windfall and not
out of any ingenuity or right policy decisions.
According to the World Bank, some of the economic statistics of
Nigeria in 1999 were GDP (current US$) $45.6 billion at an annual
growth rate of 0.58%; GDP per capita (current US$)- $381.4;
Inflation at 6.6%; and poverty headcount ratio at national poverty
lines (% of the population)-54.4%. In 2022, the same report
indicated that Nigeria’s GDP (current US$) $448.1 billion; GDP
growth (annual %)-3.4%; GDP per capita (current US$)-
$2,113.5; inflation, consumer prices (annual %): 16.6%; Poverty
headcount ratio at national poverty lines, 63% of persons living
within Nigeria.
Comparing 1999 with the 2022 economic data, we can see that
Nigeria has experienced significant economic progress over the
past 23 years at the macro economic level and not necessarily at
the micro economic level. Some of the changes are GDP (current
US$) has increased by 883%; GDP growth (annual %) has risen by
4.83 percentage points; GDP per capita (current US$) has
increased by 454%; inflation, consumer prices (annual %) has risen
by ten percentage points; poverty headcount ratio at national
poverty lines (% of the population) has increased by about 9%
percentage points. It may seem like a good improvement at a
cursory look, but given the period covered and context vis a vis
what Nigeria’s contemporaries did within a similar time frame, we
have mellowed our shout of Uhuru.
Furthermore, a more realistic comparison will be to compare our
economic data within the past decade (2012 – 2022), and this
reveals some dire results. Economic statistics of Nigeria in 2012 are
GDP (current US$): $460.6 billion; GDP growth (annual %): 4.3%;
GDP per capita (current US$): $2,762.9; Inflation, consumer prices
(annual %): 12.2%;Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines
(% of the population): 53.5%. Comparing these statistics with those
of 2022 shows that the GDP has decreased by 2.7%; GDP growth
(annual %) has decreased by 0.9 percentage points; GDP per
capita (current US$) has reduced by 23.5%; inflation, consumer
prices (annual %) has increased by 4.4 percentage points; poverty
headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population) has
increased by about nine percentage points. This shows the dire
straits our economy is in currently; therefore, we need to do
something about it urgently .
If you compare the growth of two nations with similar
circumstances, you will be worried about why our growth has been
stunted. The two nations are Rwanda and India. Rwanda’s growth
rate was -0.9% in 2007, but by 2016, it peaked at 9.4% and
stabilised at 4.9-4.2% between 2021 and 2022. Within the same
period, their GDP grew by 25% relative to 2007. India’s case is
even more admirable. India did not only increase its GDP fivefold in
the last ten years but was able to lift more than 415 million people
out of poverty in the past 15 years, whereas, during the same
period, more Nigerians moved to multidimensional poverty.
The reasonable inference to draw from this picture is that there is
something wrong with our economic model. We need a reset before
we degenerate into economic slavery. The indices indicate that our
economy is not working -low growth, high inflation, high
unemployment rate, unfavourable balance of trade, GDP and low
FDI. We must stop the degeneration and reverse it to the path of
growth. Tanzania, Ivory Coast and Rwanda are getting it right.
Whatever we must do to achieve a minimum of 5% growth per
annum is critical and urgent .
The second problem is unemployment. Unemployment statistics in
Nigeria could be better, as the country faces a high and rising level
of unemployment and underemployment, especially among the
youth. Nigeria has an unemployment rate of 27.1%, which means
that about 21.8 million people are actively looking for work but
cannot find any. Nigeria has an underemployment rate of 28.6%,
meaning that about 22.9 million people work less than 40 hours a
week or in jobs that do not match their skills, education, or
aspirations. Nigeria has a youth unemployment rate of 40%, which
means that about 14 million young people aged 15-24 are
unemployed.
Nigeria has a low labour force participation rate of 56%. Nigeria
needs to create at least 3.6 million net new jobs annually to reduce
the unemployment rate to 5% by 2033, according to a policy memo
by Agora Policy. This would require an average annual GDP growth
rate of 7.5% and an employment elasticity of 0.523.
The good news is that the new administration acknowledges these
challenges as real and present, and the ideas and the will to tackle
it is now the issue.
The critical challenge our political leaders face is making Nigerians
feel whole again, creating opportunities and hope for Nigerians,
advocating, and expanding the frontiers of freedom, eschewing
ethnic and religious bigotry, repudiating impunity, corruption, and
uncertainties, putting Nigeria on the path of recovering our country
socially, economically, and morally.
In the penultimate month of the inauguration of a new government,
it is time to reset Nigeria’s economy. This reset should be built on
three critical pillars. These pillars include restoring public
confidence in the institution of government and its capacity to
provide all citizens opportunity irrespective of tribe, religion, or
tongue; re-prioritising our national priorities to focus on
the economy, security, education, a new national – subnational
relationship ; and resisting playing politics with national
development and fighting corruption.
The government should declare war on getting the economy
right, especially raising money to make a difference . Once the
economy is good, it will elicit both intended and unintended
multiplier effects on every other aspect of the growth and
development of Nigeria. The government must have a clear,
SMART economic goal and an overarching economic strategy to
achieve the set goal. There must be clear revolutionary actions that
will reset the economy. The first of such revolution should be rapid
infrastructural development which should be evident to all
Nigerians. Spending on power ,viable interstate highways , airports
of truly international standard , scaling up train revolution and
other projects must explode.This can only happen if we can raise
money as a country . The incoming government must find the
money to make a difference in all critical areas . As it is often said ,
money answers all problems.
The second revolution is massive job creation. The Nigerian
government must decide what clear strategy to create jobs. The
bottom-up approach has not worked as intended and must be
revisited. Therefore, I advocate for the top-bottom strategy, where
the government encourage the establishment of many companies,
industries, and small and medium-scale enterprises to boost
production and create jobs. The government should resist providing
only public sector jobs as it is not sustainable . This is
counterintuitive because it makes the cost of governance high.
The last revolution is creating a sophisticated power and
technology deepening strategy that will provide access to the
internet, smart mobile telephony and a sophisticated ID programme
that will capture 99.9% of adult Nigerians that can be used to verify
anybody instantly. This will be the backbone of cataclysmic change
in Nigeria and provide the solid data infrastructure and base to
move Nigeria into the technology age. The impact of this will be
mind-boggling. Nigeria has the BVN, NIN and other forms of
identification platforms currently.
This needs to be harmonised and harnessed for Nigeria’s growth.
The government must push to have almost every Nigerian captured
in the ID programme and utilise the advantages of such data for
economic progress. Imagine an organised ID system’s impact on
instant loans to individuals and organisations, direct government
interventions, like credits to citizens and businesses, ease of
providing security, and increased confidence in doing business in
Nigeria.
