….Wishful thinking as a state strategy
It is cultural in Nigeria to wish your loved ones a prosperous new year. There is
nothing wrong with having such lofty aspirations. Of concern is that, lately, this
culture has crept into governance and development. Our leaders wish us a hunger
and poverty-free new year. They extend it to make statements of intent without any
plan to translate the aspiration into concrete results. It is normal to hear, “We shall
have stable power this year”, and “lift 50 million Nigerians out of poverty this year
“. What is lacking is a measurable plan built on an overarching vision to achieve
this goal.
The art of wishful thinking is shared by our government and people alike. It is one
of two things among the people: either a resignation to a culture of long
disappointment or a relapse into habitual superstition. The belief is that Somehow
things will be alright. For the government, it is a surrender to routine and a lack of
creative and deep thinking. It’s like in the prayer: As it was in the beginning! The
challenge of the moment is to burst the routine bubble and venture beyond the
familiar in policy thinking and service delivery.
“Wishful thinking” as a state strategy refers to adopting optimistic views without a
realistic or well-founded basis. While optimism and hope are essential for
motivation and national morale, relying solely on wishful thinking as a state
strategy can have significant drawbacks, especially in governance and policy
formulation. State strategies need to be grounded in realism, evidence, and
comprehensive planning to address the complex challenges faced by Nigeria
effectively.
We are currently experiencing many negatives of relying on unbridled optimism,
hedonistic fatalism, and political gimmickry in dealing with matters of great
importance in governance and political craftsmanship. These negatives are
accentuated by the hopeless anomaly of state actors misconstruing electioneering
campaign mantras or projects and programmes as a strategy. Annual Budgets or
Midterm Expenditure Frameworks are erroneously deemed strategies at the
national and sub-national levels. This is a farcical matter, reflecting the vicious
circle of bad choices and failure of outcomes prevalent today in government.
We need an overarching vision for Nigeria and significant national strategy, goals,
Key Performance Indicators (KPI),and actionable plans across the entire federal,
state and LGA governance structure. It is correct that in the past, we have done
some strategic or National Development Plans such as the first to fifth National
Development Plans and Vision 2020. We need a clear, coherent, strategic plan
driven by data and evidence and, most importantly, disciplined, transparent, and
consistent execution.
Universally, we acknowledge that a goal without a plan is wishful thinking, our
bane. Wishful thinking and boisterous slogans have never resulted in tangible
results – compelling vision, planning, and diligent implementation of projects do.
Across government MDAs and at the subnational level, we must go beyond
manifesto thinking to strategic thinking and planning.
Throughout history, no nation has achieved a substantial leap without a vision,
strategic thinking by its leaders, and a clear, coherent plan built on evidence and
realism. China under Deng Xiaoping, Singapore under Lee Kwan Yew, and South
Korea under Park Chung Hee are ready examples. On the contrary, an executive
presidential system requires that government planning take the form of a political
action plan and a business plan combined. No amount of whimsical, unplanned,
and hurriedly reactional actions or even inactions can trump an excellent and well-
articulated strategic plan judiciously executed for the sub-national or country’s
benefit.
Most 36 states and local governments need actionable strategic plans, not political
gimmickry. The prevailing practice is to embark on projects based on convenience,
political exigency, and personal interest and wish they could translate to holistic,
sustainable development.
The first major drawback of relying on wishful thinking as a state strategy is that it
often leads to overestimating the ease of implementing policies or achieving
specific goals. Policies may need a realistic understanding of the challenges and
complexities involved in successful implementation. The runaway inflation and the
problem of insecurity in Nigeria are good examples. From all indications, the
previous administration misdiagnosed the national security threat posed by non-
state actors, terrorists, and bandits as just a herder vs farmer conflict. This
misdiagnosis created a problem of resource application. The government
misdirected both human and capital resources to resolve this conflict.
As seen in recent times, the insecurity issues in Nigeria are multifaceted, hydra-
headed, and humongous compared to a linear causal narrative of herder vs.
farmers’ clashes. Nigeria cannot wish away insecurity. We must have a realistic
diagnosis of the security situation, understand the multidimensional aspects of the
problem, and put together a robust, actionable strategic plan to achieve the goals
we set for our national security. Anything short of this will amount to reinventing
the wheels and will not augur well with Nigeria.
Besides, unrealistic optimism results in the misallocation of resources – if the
government expects positive outcomes based on wishful thinking rather than a
thorough analysis, it may allocate resources inefficiently, leading to suboptimal
results. The 2024 National Budget and most state government budgets have
recently drawn criticisms from Nigerians, civil societies, and the media. Some
aspects of the budget were either preposterous or the amount assigned needed to be
revised. Although budgets do not represent a national development plan or
strategy, they show how and on what all the expected income of the federal or state
is to be spent. If the budget is full of frivolities and non-essentials, how can we
allocate resources effectively to bring about development in Nigeria?
Furthermore, the economic consequences of wishful thinking as a strategy are all
around us: cost of living crisis, collapse in the value of the Naira to USD, food
insecurity, infrastructural decay,and an increasing perception of economic doom
that permeates the system. Government strategic thinking, planning, and
determined implementation could have given us better outcomes. This planning
requires realistic assessments of the country’s economic potential and challenges.
Wishful thinking leads to economic policies not aligning with the actual economic
conditions, potentially resulting in economic downturns or crises – the public is
disillusioned and is quickly losing confidence in the government.
Relying on wishful thinking can hinder effective long-term planning and
jeopardize the country’s future stability and growth. At this auspicious time when
this administration is wooing foreign investors, it behoves the government to
provide a clear vision, strategic direction, and goals and implement policies and
actions that will inspire confidence that Nigeria is on a trajectory to developmental
growth in the midterm to long term.
Some federal parastatals, state governments and LGA leaders have put out their
strategic plans, and I commend these leaders. I must specifically single out the
Jigawa state government for commendation. Through my interaction with state
functionaries, I noticed that the state and MDAs have their strategic plans and
KPIs, and sector leaders have been made to sign performance agreements. Several
policies have been developed to facilitate the state’s strategic goals. The state is
ready for business!
Based on the prevalent transactional and knee-jerk approach to development
intervention at all levels of government, I make these few recommendations and
suggestions on moving from “wishful thinking” as a state strategy to a robust
strategy that is fit for purpose and easy to implement. First, State strategies must be
evidence-based. It should be based on thorough research, data, and evidence. There
is no room for hunches, guesswork, or mere intuition. Second, these governments
should communicate their strategies transparently and be accountable for the
outcomes. Open communication about challenges and setbacks can help manage
public expectations and build trust.
Third, strategic actions and policies must undergo comprehensive risk assessments.
This involves identifying potential obstacles, considering worst-case scenarios, and
developing contingency plans. A situation where policies are not adequately
thought through may devastate people’s economy and quality of life, for example,
the ill-fated Naira Redesign. Finally, strategies should be adaptable to changing
circumstances, adjusting based on real-time feedback and evolving challenges.
In conclusion, while optimism and hope are essential, they should be
complemented by realistic assessments and evidence-based strategies. Wishful
thinking, when used as the sole basis for state strategies, can lead to adverse
consequences, and governments must adopt a balanced and pragmatic approach to
addressing the challenges and opportunities facing Nigeria.
ByDakuku Peterside
