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#TrackNigeria – If the race for the 2023 elections could be likened to a hundred-metre dash, then without doubt on assessment of the current political situation in the country, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the Usain Bolt of the pack. If anyone was ever in any doubt about this assessment, the recent National Assembly leadership elections in which the candidates supported by the Asiwaju emerged victorious, confirmed that.
The emergence of Tinubu-supported candidates-Ahmed Lawan and Ovie Omo-Agege as Senate President and Femi Gbajabiamila and Idris Wase as Speaker and Deputy Speaker-is the latest milestone achieved by Tinubu in his dogged climb to political ascendancy in the Nigerian political firmament. With the Vice President Yomi Osinbajo and Party Chairman Adams Oshiomhole both as his protégés, Tinubu owns a significant chunk of the Buhari administration and the All Progressive Party (APC).
Although this has been a long time in the making, the most significant milestone that boosted Asiwaju Tinubu to his current status in Nigerian politics was his decision in the run up to the 2015 elections to lead his Action Congress of Nigeria (A.C.N) into a merger with other parties to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) which contested as opposition and won the general elections of 2015 against the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Without doubt, it is believed that the victory of the APC and the emergence of the partys candidate Muhammadu Buhari was the making of Tinubu. The significance of APCs victory in 2015 was not just on account of its being the first time an opposition will defeat a ruling party in Nigeria, it was also the first time the southwest political bloc went into political alliance with a largely northern political bloc. Extending the significance further, it marked also the first time in Nigerian politics that the southwest politics moved from opposition to mainstream politics.
In the March 2019 elections Tinubu was on hand to repeat this feat even more significantly. Not only did he return the south west votes to the APC, he demonstrated the efficacy of his political muscle along the line. He was the mastermind(or so it seemed) behind the “O to ge” revolution in Kwara state and the ruthless executioner of former Governor Akinwunmi Ambodes political ambitions in Lagos state. Up North he was the force behind several candidates for governorship, National and state assembly elections.
Today at the height of his political ascendancy, it is not what Tinubu has achieved in the political realm that calls for attention, it is what he plans to do next with the massive political power he has amassed in the race to the 2023 elections that has given rise to lively speculations and even muted concerns bordering on apprehension in some political quarters.
Will Tinubu throw his hat into the race for the 2023 presidential elections especially as the post will now be expected to be thrown to the south upon the completion of President Buhari’s mandatory two terms? How can he wangle that bearing in mind that Vice President Yomi Osinbajo who is equally eligible has by implication the right of first refusal for the job? Will Tinubu push on with his ambition regardless of the VP? How will the APC and its membership react to Tinubu coveting the position when many will feel that the VP should get the nod ahead of him? Will he “persuade” VP Osinbajo (a la Ambode in Lagos) and then pressure the APC using his formidable influence as leverage to get the nomination regardless? Will that split the party split or will it result in some members going against the party in voting for a candidate of another party?
Nowhere are these questions being asked more than in the north.
First off there are those in the north who are not sold on the idea of power rotation. People in this category believe that power rotation is unconstitutional and undemocratic because it prevents eligible persons from exercising their constitutional right to stand for any political position in the country. Such people will not be disposed to Tinubu being given what would amount to open sesame to contest for the presidential seat to the exclusion of northerners in the APC on the altar of power rotation.
Again some northerners feel that Buhari presidency has benefited the southwest in terms of appointments and projects more than the north which voted for Buhari and where he comes from. They attribute this to Tinubu’s domineering influence on the administration which makes it to pander more to the interests of southwest to the detriment of the north. If Tinubu was to be president in keeping with his political antecedent of favouring the southwest and especially with the considerable power and influence he wields he is not likely to be malleable and will concentrate more on the southwest at the expense of the north.
There are some northerners who while agreeing that power should rotate to the south, are adamant however that Tinubu should not be the beneficiary. They would rather the APC brings up another person from the south including VP Osinbajo other than Tinubu. In the opinion of such northerners in terms of their political and business antecedents precious little separates Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar. If Tinubu and Atiku are considered as being largely birds of the same feathers it would thus amount to political inconsistency to reject Atiku in 2019 only to support and vote Tinubu in 2023.
All this indicate that despite the powerful influence he wields in the polity, Tinubu has his work cut out as far as his future political plans are concerned. In this regard it will do him well to consider that the north has never willingly supported a powerful southern political personality to lead the country. Late Chief Obafemi Awolowo despite his political acumen and repeated attempts never became president. Chief MKO Abiola was in the same position of political following and power coupled with generosity as Tinubu is currently enjoying. Yet he was abruptly and brutally stopped at the cusp of clinching the presidency he deservedly won. The north supported a weak Olusegun Obasanjo sprung from jail in Yola straight to the presidency as a strategic atonement for its role in denying Chief Abiola in 1999, but promptly threw him out when he showed signs of defying his powerful political controllers. Goodluck Jonathan who accidentally stepped into the void following the demise of Umaru Yaradua was managed until he was escorted out when he tried to become too uppity politically.
Will Tinubu break the mould? In their well- known aversion and apprehension to powerful southern political personalities ruling the country, Tinubus political acumen and strength which he is now displaying and deploying to effect may be used by northern political power brokers against him when the political crunch comes. For politically correct reasons they will welcome and encourage him in his current political manoeuvres but surely the long knives will be deployed on him at a politically appropriate time when he will be helpless. This is the well-known political template that has been brutally and effectively used by the north in Nigeria’s political gamesmanship. Tinubu despite himself will be no exception. In this wise he should reflect deeply on what amounted to a political shot across his bow recently at the bridge club in Ikoyi by Governor El Rufai of Kaduna. Tinubu should also go down memory lane and remember that El Rufais statement bore uncanny resemblance to the brusque put off on Chief Abiola by late Umaru Dikko in their National Party of Nigeria (NPN) days, when the former was testing the waters to challenge President Shagari. Dikko had bluntly told Abiola who was then a prominent member and top financier of the party that it was not for sale to the highest bidder. With the benefit of hindsight today we can see that Chief Abiola”s eventual fate in politics was sealed long before he was finally stopped on June 12, 1993.
But then, having broken and set political records, perhaps Tinubu may just be the one to finally break this political hurdle for southerners in Nigerias political firmament.
