By Kazeem Akintunde
“All countries have a sovereign right to decide which other countries
to partner with, but these choices have consequences, of course.”-
John Godfrey- US First Envoy to Sudan After 25 Years
Make no mistake about it, the ongoing war in Sudan is beyond two
Generals fighting for control of the soul of the East African Country. In
fact, if care is not taken, the Sudan crisis could become another
protracted war. In actual fact, Khartoum has inadvertently become the
second leg of the war in Ukraine. Like the conflict in Ukraine, powerful
nations in the world have picked another location for their ongoing war.
Russia and the United States of America are the real drummers behind
the two Generals who have vowed to neutralize each other in Sudan.
It is unfortunate that an African country has been dragged into a
needless war. Many of those versed in International Politics knew as far
back as February this year that something will have to give when
Sudanese leaders agreed with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to
revalidate an agreement Russia had with Sudan’s former leader, Omar
Hassan Al-Bashir for the establishment of a Naval base in Port Sudan, a
major seaport in the country. Sudan had, in 2017, signed an agreement
allowing Moscow to build a base capable of hosting nuclear-powered
ships during the government of former President Al-Bashir, who was
ousted from power in 2019.
Under the agreement, Russia would lease the site for 25 years and could
extend the deal for another 10 years, giving it access to the Red Sea’s
warm waters and the international trade chokepoint of Bab el-Mandeb.
Alarmed at the turn of events in the country, the United States of
America, which has no diplomatic relations with the Sahel country as at
that time, quickly established one and John Godfrey became its envoy to
Sudan. Part of his assignment was to talk to the Sudanese government
about the implication of going ahead with the 2017 agreement with
Russia.
And he made known the intention of the USA to the Sudanese authority
from the word go. He was not comfortable with Russian influence in
Sudan and warned against the rekindling of the 2017 agreement to
establish a Russian navy base in Port Sudan.
Indeed, Godfrey told Al-Tayar, a Newspaper in Khartoum in February
that “it is essential to say that international isolation around Russia and
President (Vladimir) Putin is currently increasing due to the… invasion
of Ukraine”. He also went ahead to add that “if the government of Sudan
decides to proceed with the establishment of this facility, or to
renegotiate it, it will be harmful to Sudan’s interest”.
But his admonition fell on deaf ears as a few days later, Mohamed
Hamdan Dagalo, the deputy chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council,
and one of the Generals routing for power in Sudan, made a one-week
visit to Russia. Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, said at the time that
there were no obstacles to establishing a Russian military base in his
country if it would benefit the interests of Sudan, a remark which
brought immediate condemnation from the US.
“We have 730km on the Red Sea. Suppose any country wanted to set up
a military base, and we have with it common interests, and it does not
threaten our national security, in that case, we have no problem dealing
with Russia or others,” Hemedti stated.
Hemedti, controls about 100,000 men of the Rapid Support Forces
which are the preeminent paramilitary group in Sudan. During
Sudan’s Darfur conflict in the early 2000s, he was the leader of
Sudan’s notorious Janjaweed forces, implicated in human rights
violations and atrocities. An international outcry saw Bashir
formalize the group into paramilitary forces known as the Border
Intelligence Units. In 2007, its troops became part of the country’s
intelligence services and, in 2013, Bashir created the RSF, a
paramilitary group overseen by him and led by Dagalo, (Hemedti).
Dagalo turned against Bashir in 2019, but not before his forces
opened fire on an anti-Bashir, pro-democracy sit-in in Khartoum,
killing at least 118 people. He was later appointed deputy of the
transitional Sovereign Council that ruled Sudan in partnership with
civilian leadership. Hemedti has huge wealth derived from the export of
gold from illegal mines and commands tens of thousands of battle-
hardened veterans. He has long chafed at his position as official deputy
on Sudan’s ruling council.
In no time, the Russians wormed their way into Dagalo’s heart
through the Wanger Group, who provided training and sophisticated
arms to his group. The Rapid Support Forces on the other hand,
opened up the country’s gold mine sector to the Russians and both
parties make millions of dollars in the mining of Sudan’s resources.
The other leg in the ongoing Sudanese crisis, and Sudan’s military
leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is also believed to have been
backed by Russia, before international pressure, particularly from the
US, forced him to publicly disavow the presence of the Russian
mercenary group Wagner, in Sudan. Burhan is essentially Sudan’s
leader. At the time of Bashir’s toppling, Burhan was the army’s
Inspector General. His career has run an almost parallel course to
Dagalo’s. He also rose to prominence in the 2000’s for his role in the
dark days of the Darfur conflict, where the two men are believed to
have first come into contact. Al-Burhan and Dagalo both cemented
their rise to power by currying favor with the Gulf powerhouses and
Russia. They commanded separate battalions of Sudanese forces,
who were sent to serve with the Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen.
Now, they find themselves locked in a power struggle with each
general supported by foreign powers.
They have also disagreed on the direction the country should go. While
al-Burhan has promised a return to civilian rule, Hemedti is against
hurried handover to civil authorities and the other bone of contention is
the plan to include the 100,000-strong RSF into the army, and who
would then lead the new force.
But deep into the heart of the Sudanese crisis is the role both Russia and
the USA are playing beneath the surface. They have both taken sides in
the conflict and going by the word of John Godfrey, the consequences of
the Sudanese leader’s romance with Russia is all out for all to see. As
expected, the international community seems not interested in calling the
two Generals to order, but in how to get their men and other foreign
nationals out of the firing line.
As expected, reports from Khartoum in the last couple of days paint a
devastating picture: people are trapped indoors, terrified, with
dwindling supplies of food, water, medicines, and fuel, health services
are near collapse and several hospitals are being used by armed groups.
Across the country, there have been reports of armed clashes; people
have fled their homes in the Blue Nile and North Kordofan States and
across Darfur, with refugees and returnees having arrived in Chad,
Egypt, and South Sudan. The power struggle is lighting a fuse that could
make an already catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Sahel even
worse, setting back development by decades.
Joyce Msuya, Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and
Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator for the United Nations stressed
that the humanitarian crisis is quickly turning into a catastrophe, with
more than 460 people killed so far, more than 3,700 injured and more
than 20 hospitals forced to close. In addition to numerous reports of
sexual and gender-based violence, aid workers have been beaten and
held at gunpoint as warehouses, offices, and vehicles have been
attacked, looted, or seized.
As Sudan borders seven countries, all of which have either been
involved in conflict or seen serious civil unrest over the past decade, it is
a gateway to the Sahel, where insecurity and political instability are
making an already catastrophic humanitarian situation even worse.
Across the region, poverty and hunger are rampant, the climate
emergency, the global cost of living crisis, and soaring levels of debt are
taking a terrible toll, and in some places, humanitarian aid is all that is
keeping famine at bay. The power struggle in Sudan is not only putting
that country’s future at risk, but lighting a fuse that could detonate across
borders, causing immense suffering for years.
Nigeria and other countries are in a race against time to get their
nationals out of the country. Already, about 5,500 Nigerians living in the
country have signaled their intention to leave and the Federal
Government has commenced the process of getting them out of the
country. Due to the nature of the conflict, sending aircraft to the country
to evacuate our citizens has been ruled out as the airports are not safe
and the road option to Egypt is now being coordinated by the committee
set up for that purpose.
In all of this, the African Union seems helpless and unable to call the
fighting Generals to order. The international community is not doing
much other than getting its staff in Sudan out of harm’s way. The two
Generals have vowed to fight to the last man standing, not minding the
devastation that the country and its millions of citizens would suffer.
Already, Chad, South Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are experiencing
an influx of refugees from Sudan.
Many are now without light, food, water, and medicine while women
and children are now vulnerable in this needless war. With Russia and
USA indirectly involved in the Sudan war, the level of devastation that
would be recorded would definitely be on the high side as sophisticated
war machines would be made available to the combatants. The level of
destruction that would be witnessed and the human suffering that will
come with it would be a catastrophe for an African country. Who will
save Sudan from the proxy war taking place on its soil?
See you next week.
Addendum: We shall continue with our x-ray of the eight-year rule of
President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration which we started last
week, in the coming week.
