“Change”! That single word was the campaign slogan, which won the March 28 Presidential Elections in Nigeria for the All-Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari’s party. Never mind, the Hausa in the North call it ‘Chanji’, while the “Yoruba” in the South pronounce it as “Shanj”! Two years ago when APC was formed, nobody gave it any chance of upstaging the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – President Jonathan’s party in the murky Nigerian political space. However, no sooner had the election campaigns started than APC began to realize that “Change” was such a powerful reflection of the mood of the overwhelming majority of Nigerian electorate, tired of PDP’s 16 years of monumental corruption, lacklustre approach to the country’s security problems, and erosion of respect and goodwill from the international community.
Formed as an inclusive party, determined to keep out the military from Nigeria’s politics for good, the PDP has been in power since 1999. The party attracted most of the retired generals, the business elite, traditional and religious leaders across the country. Under Obasanjo, the party’s first president, PDP’s influence was so overbearing that every Nigerian institution deferred to it. Soon the party, which deluded itself as the “Biggest Party in Africa” started to become the victim of its own success – not only feeling infallible – but also arrogantly vowing to rule Nigeria for 60 years! Impunity and utter disrespect for the Constitution and the laws of the land became the standard operating procedure of the party. It believed that with money, it could get anything and everything it wanted in Nigeria but this time around, the more money unleashed on the electorate, the more they resented PDP with passion. Nigeria, under PDP, perhaps made more money from oil revenue than in the country’s entire history but the PDP government created a model which resulted in a linear relationship between its own affluence and poverty of the citizens such that the richer the state, the poorer the people!
General Buhari’s APC is a motley collection of experienced politicians from parties who couldn’t singlehandedly compete with PDP and many disgruntled former PDP members. The party started to earn the respect of Nigerians from the manner it conducted its primaries where Buhari emerged as its presidential candidate. At this stage, more and more PDP governors and members of the National Assembly had already switched allegiance to APC while the loyalty of those still hanging to the sinking ship continued to waver. However, a political earthquake measuring 7 on the Ritchter Scale occurred, when Gen Obasanjo publicly tore his PDP membership card in an apparent romance with the APC. Instead of the party’s hierarchy managing the loss of one of its most important members, it deployed its drones on Obasanjo in what was a bizarre outing. It was clear to even a casual observer of Nigeria’s politics that it was the beginning of the end for the so-called “Largest Party in Africa”
After 16 years in government, six of them under President Jonathan, (2010-2015), Nigerians expected PDP to flaunt its achievements and Jonathan’s record in particular as their campaign asset. Sadly, this fundamental campaign obligation was outsourced to some “Smart Alecs” who went by the name “Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN). Unfortunately, TAN and some other expired Nigerian actors reduced their campaign to the traditional media and the urban elite. And, instead of the PDP forging ahead with their manifesto and issues of critical importance to the electorate, they concentrated more on Buhari’s certificate, his age as well as trying to stop the use of the Electronic Card Reader. In utter desperation, the party even toyed with the most ridiculous idea – forcing Professor Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman to go on compulsory, pre-retirement leave! On the other hand, the opposition APC focused on their campaign promise of combating insecurity, corruption and reviving the ailing economy which resonated extremely well with Nigerians, especially the youth that constitute about 65% of Nigeria’s population.
In a state of despondence, human beings feel more confident in the hands of fatherly figures. General Buhari at the age of 72 and with a track record of honesty and personal discipline, fitted this role more than any other Nigerian politician. APC’s nomination of Professor Yemi Osinbanjo, a Pentecostal Pastor of Yoruba ethnic extraction from the south-west as Buhari’s running mate was a master stroke in Nigeria’s politics of tribal and religious brew. That blunted the propaganda that Buhari was an Islamic Fundamentalist hell bent on “Islamizing Nigeria”!
Several reasons were responsible for President Jonathan’s loss at the presidential election. Top was perhaps the issue of security. President Jonathan’s inability to end the Boko Haram insurgency six years since it started and after spending over $20 billion on the campaign left an oozing wound on his face. The manner in which the abduction of the Chibok Girls was handled and the initial callous response by his wife, unfortunately, made a caricature of President Jonathan as the most unserious president on earth. The insurgency factor cost the outgoing President millions of votes throughout the North, especially in the most affected states. However, the president’s unwise decision not to visit the region ravaged by the Boko Haram attacks until election time made him look as someone completely unperturbed by the plight of the victims – other Nigerians far away from his tribal base.
Another serious issue that worked against Jonathan was the declining state of the Nigerian economy, exacerbated by the current fall in the global price of oil. The Excess Crude Account (ECA) that was designed to cushion the effect of such revenue shortfall melted away in Nigeria’s corruption industry managed by Jonathan and his cronies. Of all the OPEC Member-States, Nigeria and Venezuela were the first to be hit so badly by the crush in the oil price. Foreign observers found it difficult to believe that such profligacy could take place under the watch of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a former top economist at the World Bank. Jonathan’s failure to control corruption in his government severely dented his personal credibility both in Nigeria and with the international community. Politically, his refusal to honour the deal not to contest the 2015 elections in keeping faith with PDP’s unwritten rotational candidature between the North and South of the country damaged even in his traditional support base such as the “Middle-Belt”. However, what perhaps mortally harmed President Jonathan was the implosion within the party, which saw many PDP top guns decamping to APC and those that remained behind turning into moles. As defeat stared the president in the face, some of those close to him started to run amok making so much hate-speeches that the opposition party had to complain to ICC.
The romance between PDP and the military almost truncated Nigeria’s democracy. President Jonathan seemed to have virtually surrendered his powers to the military to the chagrin of millions of Nigerians. In a democracy, the military should be subordinate to civil authorities but under Jonathan, the reverse was the case. The world couldn’t believe that, under President Jonathan as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the country’s Service Chiefs could walk to the Chairman of INEC and demand postponement of elections without the president’s consent as claimed by Jonathan. The use of top military commanders to rig the governorship election in Ekiti State in the South-West convinced Nigerians that the president had predicated his electoral fortunes on the “support” of the military. It required a court judgement to keep away the military from the polling station. Sadly, there’s now no love lost between the Nigerian military and the citizens they are supposed to defend.
By the day, the handwriting on the wall seemed clear that Jonathan would not win the election. And when he finally accepted defeat before the results were officially announced, the only surprise was that no presidential candidate had ever done so in Nigeria’s electoral history. PDP had committed all kinds of blunders and President Jonathan had to take the flak. Nigeria couldn’t have survived another four years under Jonathan even with the support of the military and the security forces, who were among the biggest beneficiaries of his administration. Conceding defeat and congratulating General Buhari before the results of the election was officially released, therefore, redeemed President Jonathan’s image in the minds of millions of Nigerians and endeared him to many world leaders who were extremely sceptical of peaceful elections in Nigeria. This statesmanlike gesture of the president doused off much of the fears of possible violence from his oil-producing tribal stronghold which reminded the country throughout Jonathan’s tenure of the depth of its resource nationalism, conveyed in regular and consistent threat by some of the militants, including the totalitarian statement that Jonathan must win the election. It is not clear why the president allowed such statements to be made, given their implications for his own effectiveness. It was thought that President Jonathan could only pay back the goodwill extended to him by Nigerians after the death of Yar’adua and in the 2011 elections by using his influence to stop the re-emergence of insurgency in the Niger-Delta.
As the euphoria of APC victory settles, the President-Elect and his party would have to settle down immediately to tackle a whole gamut of security, socio-economic and political problems that Nigeria faces, some of which were indicated in APC’s manifesto. There would be no quick fix! Realistically, Nigerians should come to grip with the fact that “Change” is a process, and the ultimate beneficiaries might be their children. APC cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of PDP, in particular the gross indifference to the plight of ordinary Nigerians. Hopefully, Nigeria shall overcome the Boko Haram insurgency soon and every effort should be made to accelerate the rehabilitation of the victims of Boko Haram as well as to address the general socio-economic challenges of the zone which were partly responsible for emergence of the insurgency. Every efforts should be made to avoid millions of youth roaming the street without jobs and this by creating job opportunities as APC promised during their campaign. Diversification of the economy can lead to the Promised Land.
The international human rights community expects Buhari to make the Rule of Law the cornerstone of his administration; end the massive human rights violations in Nigeria and hold perpetrators in all cases to account for their actions. Corruption must be fought by all means and accountability made the guiding principle of the administration. In this regard, all human rights defenders were elated by the President-Elect’s address last week in Bauchi in which he promised to investigate all gross human rights violations, including those committed by the security forces in prosecuting the war against Boko Haram insurgency. In the international community’s relations with Nigeria, the golden thread is Democracy, Human Rights and Good Governance. Expectations have been raised sky-high and it is only when APC government meets some of these expectations that Nigerians can shout “Change” and even louder!
Ambassador M.K. Ibrahim is a retired Nigerian Ambassador and out-going Chairman of the OIC Independent Human Rights Commission (IPHRC)
