Francis Kozah, former Legal adviser of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) in Kaduna State was particularly cocky when he spoke on the impending electoral battle between his party and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on a syndicated radio interview show called “Let’s Talk” last week.
“The PDP is suffering from the effects of two crushing defeats in the hands of el-Rufai and an impending knockout in 2023. It’s going to be 3-0”, the politician and famous community leader boasted on the program hosted by veteran journalist Emmanuel Ado and aired on several radio stations across the north.
Much as Kozah’s outburst, could easily be dismissed as partisan exuberance, the ominous fate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the impending 2023 general elections, in a state it once held in a vice-like grip has indeed been a source of anxiety for many of the PDP members and stakeholders.
Ordinarily the PDP, despite its crushing defeat in the hands of the APC in the last two elections, has every reason to be optimistic that it can retake Kaduna state. The party has to its advantage, the fact that all the three former governors of state, Arc Namadi Sambo who is also the former Vice President, Governor Ahmed Makarfi and Ramallan Yero, haven’t decamped. In fact two former major Stakeholders of the APC, Senators Suleiman Hunkuyi and Shehu Sani and several other have since defected to the opposition party. The party equally boasts of structures and membership across every ward and precincts of the state.
But whatever optimism was erased by its performance in the last statewide Local Government Council Elections. The PDP, won only five out of 23 LGAs and was heavily battered in the Southern Kaduna zone,its stronghold since 1999. Poor as the result might be, PDP members have continued to hope against hope,that its fortunes will improve.
Absurdly though, rather than articulate their party’s agenda and programs in pursuit of their desire for victory, party stalwarts have delusory conviction that it cash in on the omissions and commissions of the APC. A tactics that didn’t work in 2019,when El-Rufai had embarked on several reforms, that the PDP,thought unpopular.
The PDP, hopes to campaign on the security challenges facing the entire north-west and more curiously, what it perceives as the pains of the massive infrastructural developmental projects of Governor Nasir el-Rufai.
Mark Jacob,the former National Legal Adviser of the party, believes so. He said the “PDP should blame itself if it loses the 2023 Elections in Kaduna State because the campaign has already been completed in the state by the actions and negligence of the ruling APC.”
Analysts believe that basing its campaign on the so called pains of el-Rufai’s laudable achievements,is an indication that the party is living in the moons, especially as the El-Rufai administration has achieved under 8 years, what the PDP couldn’t achieve in 16 years. The PDP,clearly has contempt for the people,hence,it has refused to address why it failed to develop the state.
It’s not confounding that despite the obvious defeat staring the PDP, and lack of any agenda,beyond taking over power, there are several governorship hopefuls lining up for the PDP ticket. They include former Governor Ramallan Yero defeated by el-Rufai in 2015; Isah Ashiru,who was also defeated by el-Rufai in 2019; Senator Shehu Sani,who was expelled from the APC and Senator Hunkuyi his colleague who left the APC in similar circumstances; and Yusuf Datti-Baba Ahmed among others.
The other major problem facing the PDP,is that it’s deeply divided. Two of the opposing factions are led by Makarfi and Sambo while a third motley group led by a former Deputy Speaker Dogara Mato is the battle-axe of Hunkuyi.
The division is so deep. Alhaji Umar Sani, former Special adviser to Sambo, has openly asked the PDP to forget the 2023 elections. “Unless and until we, the main opposition party put our house in order and address holistically, lingering issues in the party our chances of taking power both at the state and national level remains very slim.” He told a press conference in Kaduna last November.
This factional crisis is exacerbated by the lack of a formidable candidate amongst the front runners even when they are called “heavyweights”.
The aspirants which the party boasts of beginning from Isa Kudan Ashiru, when subjected to scrutiny are actually electoral liabilities. He is a man of modest education… The psychological crisis of having been previously defeated by El- Rufai, is reportedly worrying Ashiru. He was twice defeated by el-Rufai, first in the primary election in 2014. The feat was repeated after Ashiru decamped to the PDP and emerged its flag bearer in 2019. And with the PDP’s fortune in Kaduna worse than the previous election,it reasons that Ashiru can’t suddenly invent some magical winning stunt.
Ramallan Yero, who El-Rufai defeated in 2015, as an incumbent, has acquired the tag a of a serial contestant. The joke is that he wants a knock out in the hands of his nemesis,El- Rufai…Yero’s chances are zero,but party members are encouraging him,so they be gainfully employed,for some months,before he runs back to Abuja,his new base.
Hunkuyi, notoriously controversial…, holds the highest record of defection back and forth between the PDP, the ANP, the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the APC. ..
Hunkuyi’s ambition is considered dead on arrival. He has a long drawn animosity with Makarfi and Sambo. In 2003, he resigned after close to four years in office as Finance Commissioner under Makarfi, to challenge Makarfi. Makarfi, roundly floored him,that he quickly returned to the PDP. Again he was trashed by Namadi Sambo and late Patrick Yakowa.
El- Rufai, who he was to betray, helped him to his only electoral victory in 2015,as senator, representing Kaduna North. But before the euphoria died down Hunkuyi had again turned against el-Rufai his most recent benefactor. His attempt at factionalizing the APC but was firmly resisted by el-Rufai. He is back to political wilderness,considering his fight with every key stakeholder in the PDP.
Equally farfetched is the ambition of Senator Shehu Sani, Hunkuyi’s colleague who was equally expelled by the APC for disciplinary reasons.
The key PDP stakeholders can’t trust Shehu Sani. In 2019, he had described the PDP as home of corruption, preferring to contest for the senate on the Peoples Redemption Party ticket. Senator Uba Sani,landed him a defeat,that he hasn’t recovered from.
The party members have refused to forget his invectives against the party.
Senator Baba-Ahmed, though he doesn’t have the stains and stench of the other candidates, has little or no political structures. He is seen as a paper tiger.
Even if the PDP were to suddenly unite, victory is still farfetched. Though el-Rufai will no longer be eligible to contest,he is going to campaign to ensure his legacy is not destroyed by the PDP candidates,who clearly lack vision.
He is quoted to have said,“Some people said that what we have done now cannot be reversed, that’s wrong. A bad governor, a PDP governor can reverse this in six months. Don’t make the mistake of voting PDP back into office in 2023. If you do, things will go back to what they used to be”.
But more than an appeal watchers of Kaduna politics see this clarion call by the governor to his teeming supporters across the state as a clear indication that el-Rufai will campaign vigorously to protect his enormous legacies spanning all the sector of governance in Kaduna State. The 2023 election is considered as crucial,as the 2015 election.
Indeed there’s a consensus even among his rivals and political enemies that his infrastructural development and governance is unrivalled in any state in Nigeria either presently or previously.From his much-applauded urban renewal programme that has turned Kaduna into a modern capital with flyovers crisscrossing the landscape of the city to reforms of the education, health sectors, unprecedented job creation, ICT etc and the management of security despite the trenchant attacks by bandits in rural areas of the state.
These achievements have really endeared him to the people and his words are taken as a creed among many electorates. The governor is expected to maximize his popularity to ensure that the PDP is kept out of Kashim Ibrahim House.
Governor el-Rufai is one of the very few if not the only highbrow political actor in the country who relies on modern empirical research in the prosecution of elections. He let a rare glimpse into his electoral tactics while speaking at the Bridge Club, Ikoyi Lagos in May 2019 shortly before his inauguration for a second term. He told his audience how he relied on research to retire four godfathers in Kaduna State in one full swoop and commended the same strategy to Lagosians if they wished to liberate their land from the vice-like grip of godfathers.
It is taken for granted that with el-Rufai’s grip on his party and his popularity among the people the candidate that emerges must enjoy his backing. But even without a known candidate at the moment the PDP as boosted by Kozah is headed for a third defeat given its appalling fortunes and el-Rufai’s determination to protect his turf.
