…INTRODUCTION AND APPRECIATION
I join my comrade President, Comrade Oladele Hunsu to welcome you to the 26th Annual Joint Education Conference of the union. We thank all those who have contributed to making our annual educational conference sustainable. The union spends as much as N11m only on this year’s Education Conference alone which is also one of the highest in terms of number of participants. Annual Education Conference provides the platform for participants to interact and reflect on key national and industrial relations issues.
COURSE THEME AND OBJECTIVES
Early this year, Dr. Yemi Kale, the DG of the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that after rebasing the GDP the size of Nigerian economy expanded by more than three-quarters to some estimated 80 trillion naira ($488 billion) in 2013 compared to $262.6 billion in 1990. This makes Nigeria the largest economy on the continent followed by South Africa at some estimated GDP of $384.3 billion.
The main objective of this year’s National Education Conference is to provide the platform for participants to discuss these new numbers on rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP). What do the new figures mean for Industry, labour and our democracy?
In specific terms what does rebased GDP mean for the revival of textile industry?
We also intend to come out with practical policy options for sustainable industrial development and employment generation.
This conference is holding on the eve of 2015 general election. It is therefore expected that we discuss the critical issues of governance and national development and the imperative of workers participation in the political process.
6Ws OF GDP
The Education Conference will address the 6Ws of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
WHAT is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Why GDP? What are the benefits? What drives GDP? WHICH measures can be taken to improve on the country’s rebased GDP?
WHAT IS REBASED GPD?
Simply put, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of economic activities in a country. It is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period.
IMPORTANCE AND LIMITATION OF REBASED GDP
GDP shows the size of the economy just as census shows the population of a country. It is a quantitative term. All countries typically rebase their GDP statistics every 5 years in order to better capture information on economic activity. Ghana rebased its GDP in 2010. Nigeria’s GDP had not been rebased since 1990.
With the rebased GDP estimates, Nigeria is now ranked as the 26th largest economy in the world, and the largest economy in Africa with peer countries such as Argentina (ranked 25th), Austria (27th) and South Africa (ranked 28th). The new Rebased figure for Nigeria may legitimize Nigeria’s recent falcon Eagles serial defeat of Bayana Bayana in round ball tournament in Namibia.
BUT REAL ECONOMY IS CERTAINLY NOT A FOOTBALL TOURNAMENT
Size does not mean the strength of the economy. Nigerian macro economics is weak compared to South Africa – value of the Naira (N160 exchanges for 1 dollar) compared to South Africa’s rand of 8.21 exchanging for a dollar. Nigeria’s average interest rate is 24 per cent compared with South Africa’s interest rate of 5 percent, United Kingdom 0.50 per cent, Denmark 0.00, Switzerland 0.25 and United States of America 0.25 per cent.
This means that the cost of fund is cheaper everywhere minus Nigeria.
Manufacturing value added for South Africa is about 20 per cent compared to Nigeria’s 4 per cent. Indeed Nigeria still parades lower per capita GDP of 5,746 compared to China’s 11,868 and South Africa’s 12,507125.
Capacity utilization in South Africa averages 80 per cent while Nigeria is around25 per cent. The two countries face the challenges of unemployment, but Nigeria open unemployment of almost 50 per cent is still higher than that of South Africa of about 35 per cent. Nigeria’s inflation rate of 9 per cent is also higher compared to South Africa’s 6.3 per cent as at July 2014.
NIGERIA’S REBASED GDP AND STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY
The rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows that Nigeria is a bit diversified than previously reported and the structure of the Nigerian economy has also changed significantly.
NIGERIA IS STILL A DEPENDENT ECONOMY
However, Nigeria is still dependent on the oil extraction and crude oil exports. Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala just revealed that Nigeria is a country that is dependent on one commodity (oil). The commodity is dependent on how much the buyers want to buy.The prices of crude oil have fallen from $115 per barrel to $86 per barrel with the fear that the prices can fall as low as $80. This has created shock in the economy.
LABOUR RESISTANCE
This drop in oil prices should not create additional problems for the overburdened population. In fact the price of petrol must necessarily be reduced because the prices of imported oil depend on the prices of the crude.
Labour will resist any attempt to pass the burden on the workers either through delayed payments of salaries or retrenchment. Government should cut huge overhead costs of office holders of both the executives and the National Assembly.
I agree with the Minister of Finance that Nigerian economy is still stable even at $80 dollars per barrel. But in the long run that stability is the stability of the grave yard economy. Nigeria cannot be said to be stable until we see practical results of the transformation of the economy from oil dependency to resource value addition and manufacturing value added in particular.
This then raises the issue of transformation which President Jonathan promises.This administration will be better assessed in terms of promised transformation agenda dealing with power supply, agriculture and beneficiation in the extractive industries such as oil and gas. With wholesale importation of tooth picks to petroleum products, textiles to furniture, it’s certainly not yet a transformed Nigerian economy.
NEED FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION
Industrialization assumes a special importance in development given its importance in the transformation of the economy through production of goods and services, employment generation and poverty eradication.
Industrialization is at the heart of development discourse.
If goods produced are not broadly distributed, among the population, we can only talk of economic growth. However if the goods meet the basic human needs of a large percentage of the population, industrial growth can then be said to be accompanied by development. The advantages of industrialization include lessening of dependency on imports, employment creation and saving scarce foreign exchange.
NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION PLAN
This is why we support government initiatives on National Industrial Revolution plan. The latest automotive policy must lead to revival of automobile industry. Also intervention fund on textile is commendable. However key problems facing manufacturing sector in Nigeria particularly the textile industry include; infrastructural inadequacy, raw materials, electricity supply, smuggling, counterfeiting and faking among others which need to be urgently addressed by the government.
COMMEND ALHAJI ALIKO DANGOTE
This is why we supported the move by Dangote Group to re-industrialise Africa through an unprecedented investment of $9 billion in an oil refinery and petrochemical complex in the country, stating that its job creation potential is very gratifying.
The refinery, located at the Olokola Liquefied Natural Gas (OKLNG) Free Trade Zone in Nigeria, will be Nigeria’s first private and Africa’s largest petroleum refinery, with a projected daily production output of 400,000 barrels a day.
This investment patriotism is made possible because of the federal government efforts at promoting backward integration policy. Africa is a resource rich continent yet it has low levels of industrialisation, with materials being exported in its raw form.
It is commendable that Dangote Group of industries is changing the narrative of the continent from that of ‘resource curse’ to resource beneficiation, value addition and mass employment through industrialisation and internal articulation of African economy. Industrialisation is it for Nigeria if it must be part of the leading economies of the world, to get millions of youth to work out of violence and crime and above all out of poverty.
PERFORMANCE OF THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY
The government had talked about a new textile policy in February 2013, however there has been no progress. Unless effective steps are taken by the government to revive the industry, gains achieved in 2010 will be lost and result in job losses, thus aggravating the unemployment situation.
SMUGGLING
Smuggled products occupy over 90% of the market. It is estimated that Nigeria imports N300 billion worth of textiles and garments annually, most of which are illegally imported without paying any duties and taxes.
AFRICA INDUSTRIALISATION DAY
Our union together with other industrial unions in NLC and TUC will observe this year’s Africa Industrialization Day on November 20. It is a day set aside annually”to stimulate the international community’s commitment to the industrialization of Africa”. It offers an ample time when governments and other critical stakeholders like trade unions in many African countries consider various ways to refine and deepen Africa’s industrialization process. It is also an occasion to attract worldwide media attention to the issues and challenges of industrialization in Africa. Specifically, the Day is chosen to mobilize the commitment of the international community to the industrialization of Africa.
The 25th General Session of the Government of the Organization of African Unity and Assembly of Heads of State was held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in July, 1989. November 20 was declared to be Africa Industrialization Day, during this session. On December 22, 1989, the UN General Assembly also announced this date as Africa Industrialization Day. This day was first observed on November 20, 1990.
Africa industrialization Day promotes industrialization awareness in the past decades. More than 30 of the world’s 48 least industrialized developed countries are part of Africa continent, one of them being Nigeria. The challenge is to promote industrialization. We shall use the occasion of this year’s Africa Industrialisation Day to make a case for Reindustrialisation of Nigeria within the context of the National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP).
All these development must take place within a national and democratic context.
NIGERIA’S DEMOCRATIC PROCESS
This year Nigeria marked 15 years of uninterrupted constitutionalism and civil rule. For those of us who strongly believe that June 12th should be Nigeria’s real democracy Day, if that singular free and fair election had not been criminally annulled in June 1994, we should be marking 20th anniversary of democracy by now.
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Nevertheless Nigeria remains the largest democracy in Sub-Sahara Africa. INEC reported that as many as 73 million voters registered for 2011. That was almost the population of Egypt. That was almost twice the population of South Africa and three times the population of Ghana!. If INEC ‘rebases’ the voters’ register, just as Bureau of Statistics just rebased our GDP, Nigeria is not only the largest economy in Africa but the biggest democracy in Africa.
Political parties are the major institutions of a functioning democracy. Again Nigeria has the highest number of political parties in Sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa has about 15 parties in parliament. Electoral Commission of Ghana registered 23 political parties. Nigeria has almost 30 registered parties.
ACTIVE PARLIAMENT
Nigeria also has the biggest Parliament in Africa (Bicameral Legislature). The 7th National Assembly (2011 -2015) was inaugurated on 6th June, 2011. Out of the 109 Senators of the Senate, 36 were re-elected while 73 were elected for the first time. The House of Representatives of the 7th National Assembly was also inaugurated on the 6th June 2011. Out of the 360 members of the House of
Representatives, 100 were re-elected while 260 were elected for the first time.
TIME FOR QUALITY CONTROL OF THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS
Carpet Crossing – Carpet crossing should be sanctioned. Political parties have sadly become hired vehicles to move from pillars to posts in a desperate move to be in office for power and money rather than for service. Defections, shameless carpet crossing and non-issue based statements have become the order of the day. Electorates are increasingly confused as they are made to be in a party in the morning, ask to move to another party in the afternoon and at night defect to another party. We must discourage butterfly politicians.
KEEP RELIGIOUS MANIPULATION OUT OF POLITICS; both Generals Buhari and Obasanjo are wrong Secularity of Nigeria is Paramount as we move towards 2015. Recently there was a controversy on religious balancing in presidential tickets in Nigeria. Both former Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari and former President Olusegun Obasanjo were wrong to have brought issue of religion in politics. This controversy is unnecessary and unhelpful.
NIGERIANS ARE AS CITIZENS NOT MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS
The Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution does not define citizenship of Nigeria in terms of religion. Christians, Muslims are never known to the constitution. Constitution talks of the people and citizens of Nigeria. Chapter VI of the constitution says there shall be the President of the Federation who shall be the Head of State, the Chief Executive of the Federation and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federation.
The criteria for qualifications do not include religious profiling. A person shall be qualified for election to the office of the President once he is a citizen of Nigeria by birth; he has attained the age of forty years; he or she is a member of a political party and is sponsored by that political party; and he has been
educated up to at least School Certificate level or its equivalent. An election to the office of President is conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission not by any religious or ethnic groups. The problem is not just the age of the retired two generals but the age of their ideas which wrongly define Nigerians in terms of their private religious preferences rather than their legitimate citizenship. Also the Seventh Schedule of the constitution says President and his or her Vice President will take Oaths that bear Allegiance to Republic of Nigeria, preserve, protect and defend the sovereignty, integrity, solidarity, well-being and prosperity of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The oath of allegiance of the President is not to religious or ethnic groups.
Chapter III of the Constitution also defines citizens of Nigeria not in terms of their religious profiling.
Both Generals Muhammadu Buhari and former President Olusegun Obasanjo are encouraged to be statesmanlike and talk in terms of the spirit and content of the constitution not their divisive presences. Religion is purely a private affair.
The two great faiths; Islam and Christianity are not at war. Nobody should invent religious war by introducing unconstitutional “religious balancing” into power sharing arrangement of the politicians. What Nigerians desire is good governance to be driven by good politicians with tested democratic civil mindsets and democratic programme. The intrusion of religion into Nigeria’s politics is a clear threat to democracy causing violent eruptions and threatening peace. The Federal Government must be firm on the secularity of the Nigerian state.
PARTIES SHOULD STICK TO THEIR RULES
Internal Rules of the Political Parties – the way the political parties are also changing rules through waivers will not urge well for a qualitative growth of the parties.
POWER WITH RESPONSIBILITY
We must discourage the practice where appointment to public office has become a vehicle for public officers to seek political office instead of opportunities to serve the public.
At least seven ministers in the Federal Executive Council (FEC) reportedly resigned to enable them contest for the 2015 general elections.
We must ensure whoever the President of the country appoints as Minister must be committed to good governance and service delivery and not to see the appointment as opportunity to further their political ambitions. Appointments should only be accorded those willing to run the ministries not seeing the appointments as stepping stones to another political jobs.
STOP “POLITICAL INCEST”
Serving Governors are desperate to become senators and Ministers all for office seeking and protection heavens. This must be discouraged.
STOP VIOLENCE IN POLITICS
Over 2,000 innocent Nigerians may have been killed since 1999 in election-related violence. Out of the four general elections conducted in Nigeria since 1999. The 2011 general elections are the bloodiest, with at least 1,200 deaths. Nigeria has conducted four major elections since 1999, that is to say; the 1999, the 2003, the 2007 and the 2011 general elections and none of them was violence free, though some were more violent than others. It is believed that up to 300 people died during the conduct of the 1999 and the 2003 general elections. In the 2007 general elections, at least 300 people were killed according to Human Rights Watch, USA, and in the 2011 general elections, over 1,200 people including at least 50 members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) were killed.
HOLD POLITICIANS ACCOUNTABLE
We must end this ugly trend of violence in our democratic process. Political Parties and Politicians must watch their actions and utterances. Wherever there is violence, citizens must hold the perpetrators and their sponsors responsible.
LET THERE BE FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS
We are encouraged that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has warned its personnel to avoid anything that could scuttle the 2015 general elections. The world is not just watching the commission as the commission’s Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, rightly observed but the world will hold the INEC accountable for the quality of the next election in terms of availability of voting materials, integrity of INEC officials, voting, vote counting and announcements of results. Let the next elections be finalized at the polling boots not at the courts.
NO SHOT CUT TO DEMOCRACY
No matter what the police and State Security Service do, a lot depend on the activities of the political actors. Our politicians must return to politics 101 and do the first thing first; put the people and the nation first. Citizens must rise up to demand for accountability not after the elections but even now before the elections. We must vote for issues of developments not just persons of means and money.
WANTED; CRITERIA FOR GOOD GOVERNNACE
We Must Redefine the Criteria for Assessing Leadership to include Civility and tested in governance performance as we have seen in some states such as Lagos, Kano, Edo and Osun.
CONDITIONAL LABOUR SUPPORT
Labour will only support Development and Labour Friendly candidates who have – Respect for Labour Laws and Workers Rights, payment of minimum wage and Labour must remain in the Exclusive Legislative List NOT Concurrent List.
NIGERIA’S VICTORY AGAINST EBOLA VIRUS : SIGN OF GOOD GOVERNANCE THAT MUST BE SUSTAINED
Salute to Cuban Solidarity
We commend the Cuban government for sending a record team of medical personnel to join the fight against Ebola in West Africa. Cuba had sent 165 health workers to hard-hit Sierra Leone, the largest of such medical solidarity workers in history, according to World Health Organisation (WHO). We urge other countries of the world to borrow a leaf from Cuba and help in the effort to eradicate the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in particular and the world at large.
…PRESENTED AT THE OPENING CEREMONY OF THE 26TH NATIONAL EDUCATION CONFERENCE OF THE UNION HELD AT MICHAEL IMOUDU NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR LABOUR STUDIES (MINILS), ILORIN, KWARA STATE TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 28TH, 2014
