The most frenzied election in Africa in contemporary times is likely to be the Nigerian federal elections held Saturday 28 March 2015 when Nigerians voted in the Presidential and National Assembly polls.
Indeed, foreign intelligence and diplomatic sources had been quoted several times since 2011 to have predicted the end of Nigeria as a country, consequent upon the outcome of the 2015 elections.
A former U.S Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. John Campbell is more prominently quoted to have insisted that the country would break up in 2015. In a recent report by the seasoned diplomat who had previously served as Political Counsellor at the U.S mission in Nigeria between 1988 and 1990 and currently a Senior Fellow at the United States’ Council on Foreign Relations, insisted the election will plung Nigeria in crisis.
In the report, titled: Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential Election: Contingency Planning Update, which he submitted to the council, Campbell, also the author of a book titled: Nigeria: Dancing on The Brink, correctly reported that President Jonathan is unpopular and may lose the election due to his low performance. The integrity and credibility of the electoral process in the March 28 election is a strong factor that made Campbell and his likes swallow their assumptions on the demise of Nigeria as a country.
The leadership of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC should have much of the credit for conducting the freest, fairest, and most credible election in Nigeria’s history, perhaps arguably better than the famed June 12 1993 election, which was annulled by the Ibrahim Babangida military regime. But for the annulment, Babangida and indeed the head of the electoral commission at the time, Professor Humphrey Nwosu would have remained global heroes of democracy as a result of the creative and very unique electoral process they adopted. Option A4, a process that ensured transparency in the choice of candidates from the point of nomination at the lowest level up to the general election was exemplary in conduct and features.
It was the first time Nigerians fully participated in a transparent democratic process. But the regime opted to throw its name in the murky trash of history and consequently inflamed the country in undeserved chaos and prolonged bloody violence that sent several hundreds to early death, many more were incercerated under very harsh conditions for demanding democratic leadership, while the Sani Abacha dictatorship, the beneficiary of the annulment, freely ferried our collective wealth into personal vaults across the globe.
The frustrations of the Nigerian people, especially under the outgoing leadership have been very clear to all, except the leadership and its cronies. And clearly the predicted break up could have become reality if the outcome of the 2015 election came out differently. Our collective agonies bear no ethnic extractions, though there were ethnic inputations to critical reactions by beffudled political jobbers who survive only on sycophantic affiliations with Any Government In Power, AGIP.
Majority of our people know and feel the pains of our grounded economy, an economy that have been unproductive for decades fundamentally due to lack of patriotic commitment by successive governments whose leaders committed much of our common wealth to private interests which consequently nipped industrial development, destroyed public infrastructures, promoted massive looting with disdainful impunity, leaving us with one of the highest ratio in the global unemployment index.
Aside dumping our economy in deeper doldrum, the political class, especially the extraction belonging to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, displayed so much contempt for the people in their conducts, statements and policies such that the people constantly got reminded of their inconsequence by the way they were led. It became common in the ordinary to hear news of discovery of missing public monies in high places with the authority denying without investigation, while the accusers end up being hounded, maligned and tagged enemy of the administration. Those openly accused of corruption, including those tried and found guilty by various courts within and outside Nigeria were rewarded with national honours. Honours that were prestigious until they were desecrated by the administration.
Corruption became lucrative under the outgoing administration. While majority of the people wallow in abject poverty, hunger and hopelessness, with a teaming population of nearly half the entire populace struggling in unemployment, the administration suddenly went wild in celebration of claims that the country has suddenly assumed the leadership of all economies in Africa, even with a totally collapsed industrial sector; unavailable public electricity and a bastardised national currency of no values in the international market. You will wonder what determines a healthy economy with a population where majority of the citizens struggle to have just a meal per day.
Security was brazenly compromised as government security agencies, including the military conducted their responsibilities with clear partisan inclinations that left no one in doubt that state apparatuses as important as security and military institutions became tools of political vendetta, electoral manipulations and subversion of democratic norms.
Indeed, impunity reigned supreme at all levels and there won’t be any qualitative change by the Buhari administration if all the security agencies, including the military are not overhauled, retrained and refocused.
The votes at the 28 March presidential election particularly represent a massive rejection of the obvious incompetence, ineptitude, and lack of focus and purpose which characterised the outgoing administration.
A major lesson from this, especially to the incoming administration of Mohammadu Buhari is that no government will ever rule this country without the popular mandate of the people, which will be delivered based on performance. Buhari will be voted out if by the next election we still don’t have electricity, jobs, industries, strong national currency, strong state institutions that will deliver quality services to the people, among other needs.
The sustenance of an impartial, trusted and credible electoral system is the only way the power of the people can be reckoned with by those who rule us. The alternative is mass revolt.
The acceptance of the verdict by President Goodluck Jonathan is not as unique as it seems. Yes, some other self serving Presidents would have insisted on using all the state apparatuses at their disposal as a sitting President to insist on ignoring the popular rejection represented in the credible votes, but the Nigerian situation and contemporary global focus won’t be helpful to more spending on managing crisis of the magnitude that could have followed the election, should it have been manipulated or truncated.
That the country didn’t go under, against predictions by diplomats and western intelligence should be credited to the high standard adopted by INEC, the discipline and patriotic commitment of Prof. Jega, the head of the electoral commission who understandably came under severe media attacks by the ruling party and its apologists just before the election when it became obvious that the process is beyond anyone’s manipulation.
The pressure exerted by the international community and internal exigencies compelled President Jonathan to painstakingly accept defeat. However, whatever circumstances made him accept the outcome, he must be applauded for being honourable enough not to leave our country in tatters. What can not be correct is to proclaim him hero in this circumstance as the real heroes are the Nigerian people and the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. President Jonathan only deserve to be honoured as a patriot who accepted not to be recorded as leading his country to her own end beyond the near helpless situation his presidency would be leaving our affairs.
He should be applauded for accepting not to be Nigeria’s last President. Against all imperial predictions, Nigeria has survived the 2015 election and may stand taller in honour as a country.
Yaqub is an Assistant Secretary at the headquarters of Nigeria Labour Congress, Abuja
