Without doubt, the twin policies of removal of petrol subsidies and the floatation of the naira by the Bola Tinubu administration has plunged Nigeria into an unprecedented levels of cost of existence crisis, which is characterised by mass poverty, hunger, misery and a helpless form of hopelessness. With rising cost of petrol, Nigeria’s most utilized energy product, steadily depreciating local currency and devalued wages has resulted into a unique form of stagflation; an economic condition whereby inflation is high with supply and demand as a result of low economic productivity has set in. Many businesses in the manufacturing sector have folded up and left Nigeria, citing ‘’high cost of production and low consumer demands’’ as reasons for shutting down. As the government of President Ahmed Bola Tinubu doubles down on his so-called economic reforms that have deformed the Nigerian economy, the helplessness of Nigerians is made even more hopeless.
But beyond the fact that President Tinubu is doubling down on his economic reforms with severe deforming effects on the Nigeria economy, the over 200 million citizens of the largest Black Democracy on earth are left with no clear alternative to the prevailing ultra-right leaning economic policies of the current administration. And nothing demonstrates this stark reality than the latest attempt by Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] in the 2023 general elections. Being Tinubu’s main challenger in the 2023 presidential election and candidate of Nigeria’s main opposition PDP, it is expected that Atiku Abubakar and his party will be beneficiaries of the burden of incumbency disadvantage that the Tinubu administration currently suffers from as a result of its toxic cocktail of neo-liberal economic policies.
And to really benefit from the governance failure of President Tinubu, Atiku and his opposition PDP must come across to Nigerians as a clear cut alternative that is poles apart from the current APC administration in terms of policy propositions among other things. However, Atiku and his opposition PDP have not been able to live up to this expectation as the main opposition leader in Nigeria. Apart from the fact that he is the chief proponent of removal of subsidy on petrol since his days as vice president of Nigeria, Atiku is also the main advocate of privatization and floatation of the naira. In a 2018 interview with Reuters, Atiku expressly stated his intention to privatize the NNPC and float the Naira if elected president of Nigeria in the 2019 presidential election. In his words, ‘’I will allow the naira to float, because I believe that is one of the ways foreign direct investments can be encouraged to come in’’, the same reason the current administration gave for floating the national currency.
Similarly, Atiku described subsidy on petrol as ‘’fraud’’ and vowed to scrap it within 100days in office if elected president in 2023. Speaking at the Lagos Business School 2022 Alumni Day, the former vice president said, ‘’I was chairman for the removal of the fuel subsidy committee and I recall how we removed phase 1 and phase 2 of the fuel subsidy. I will continue from where we stopped, remove fuel subsidy totally and channel the subsidy fund back into the economy. In order words it’s just a fraud’’. As matter of fact, on the eve of the 2023 presidential election, the removal of fuel subsidy on petrol and floatation of the naira was a national consensus to the extent that the inaugural dinner address that was presented by Akinwumi Adeshina of the Africa Development Bank Group, had one central message; president Tinubu, remove subsidy on petrol immediately. And when President Tinubu declared subsidy on petrol ‘’gone’’ on his first day in office, he received global applause for his ‘’bold’’ and ‘’courageous’’ policy decision. It was only after the predictable negative consequences of energy insecurity arising from unaffordability set in that many Nigerians and indeed global partners began to rethink their support for the policy.
By insisting of his lifelong stand on the need to remove subsidy on petrol and floatation of the naira but now positing that there is a better way of doing it than how President Tinubu did it seems to suggest that Atiku is saying that there is a good way of doing a bad thing. Removal of petrol subsidies is tantamount to an abdication of a key responsibility of government to provide energy security for its citizens. According to IMF, global spending on fossil fuel energy derivatives reached 7 trillion dollars in 2023, with China, USA and Saudi Arabia as the top three spenders. If the leading economies of the world are subsidizing fossil fuel energy derivatives, which includes petrol, it means that subsidy on petrol is an economic virtue and not vice.
As long as Atiku is still stuck with his policy document, where subsidy on petrol is ‘’haram’’ and floatation of the naira is ‘’halal’’ then he is not yet on the road to Damascus, hence has not seen the ‘’light’’. If after one year and nearly six months after the ravages of subsidy removal and floatation of the naira is still being felt, Atiku Abubakar has not thought it imperative to review and denunciate his earlier stand on these toxic policies then he would have failed as an opposition leader. To succeed in the current dispensation as an opposition leader will be for Atiku and his PDP to denunciate his age long proposition of subsidy removal and floatation of the naira and apologise to Nigerians for being part of a national consensus that was premised on a flawed economic orthodoxy. Atiku should then call on President Tinubu to reverse these policies by restoring subsidy on petrol and unfloating the naira. And if President Tinubu is far too gone to heed this call, Atiku will pledge to restore subsidy on petrol and unfloat the naira if given the opportunity by Nigerians to lead in 2027. Anything short of this radical departure from Tinubunomics will earn President Tinubu a second term in office as Nigerians will nothing to hold onto to reject him at the polls.
And the tragedy of this is that Nigerians will be left with no alternative to choose from in the next round of presidential election.
