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The battle to succeed President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua unfolds with amazing twists and    turns

The ability to mask intentions has been elevated to an art form among politicians .And it appears that  in politics, little regard is paid to morality .Obviously such issues like the ill health of the president deserve no real sympathy-that is the lesson Nigerian politicians want us to learn-what is important is to glibly call for prayers , move swiftly and scheme to occupy the looming vacancy ,even when the seat has not been vacated yet .Worse still, it seems Nigerian politicians, for whatever reasons, like to stir up crisis over issues that are constitutionally defined .What matters is to instigate or even contrive succession crisis and strategize towards profiting from such .But why will politicians who claimed to be loyal to the president only a short while ago suddenly become power hungry hawks behind the scenes seeking to ditch the `incumbent’. It is  plausible to speculate  that the vast majority of Nigerians including the ruling PDP members are sick and tired of the Yar’Adua presidency .Yes, he is a good man from all accounts but his leadership has done little to provide the dividends of democracy and that may be the crux of the matter .Interestingly those scheming to succeed him or to benefit from his looming exit if his illness persists  include his trusted allies .That is why whoever becomes President after Yar’Adua must keep this axiom in mind :never trust the pledge of loyalty by the Nigerian politician because it is skin deep.

President  Yar’Adua might   have  always known that  he had been  working with  sharks .He had tried to sack or shuffle a few men in the recent past.On one occasion Babagana Kingibe, the secretary to the federal government was sacked after the president returned from a medical trip Saudi Arabia.   But the real hawks who are more interested in the spoils of office rather than the nation have remained around waiting for a time to bare their fangs .Some have insisted that some of this group of power mongers are the ones who have held an unwilling (?) Yar’Adua hostage , stopping him from resigning in the face of ill-health . Now that his health has worsened deeply, the hawks have been at it again  seeking ways to hang  on to complete Yar’Adua’s  (northern) term .Even if vacancy occurs, the pro Yar’Adua hawks may just be engaging in daydreams and wishful thinking ,because the vice president is the man known to the constitution in the event of a vacuum.

 Yar’Adua’s illness appears unbearable for those who seem to benefit from this regime of inertia . Perhaps, those plotting to keep the regime rolling on at all costs are also those who have repeatedly been given protection by the regime which seems to have sabotaged the anti-corruption war.The battle to succeed the president has escalated on the heels of his admission at a hospital in Jeddah two weeks ago. After days of speculation and rumour mongering ,Olusegun Adeniyi the senior special adviser to the president on media confirmed to the entire world that Yar’Adua had acute heart problem

According to Adeniyi : ``At about 3pm on Friday, November 20th, after he returned from the Abuja Central Mosque where he performed the Juma’at prayers, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua complained of left sided severe chest pain. Preliminary medical examinations suggested ACUTE PERICARDITIS, (an inflammatory condition of the coverings of the heart).It was then decided that he should undertake confirmatory checks at the King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia where he had his last medical check-up in August.The medical review and tests undertaken at the hospital have confirmed the initial diagnosis that the President is indeed suffering from ACUTE PERICARDITIS.He is now receiving treatment for the ailment and is responding remarkably well.’’The statement Adeniyi read was actually written by  Dr. Salisu Banye, chief physician to the president.

Adeniyi’s press conference came on Thursday November 26, a day after the nation was  suffused with rumours of the president’s death in Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah.There were even unconfirmed claims of jubilation in some parts of Katsina ,the president’s home state over the rumours of his death .All those who perhaps wished him dead and those who jubilated were disappointed that the man in fact  had not died yet.

But YarAdua was said to have gone in and out of intensive care unit .It is certainly a painful experience for a man who was ‘elected’ to rule Africa’s most populous country .Though the president’s physician said he was battling with acute pericarditis, many believe that it may just be part of the problems.YarAdua is reported to have kidney problems and he  was also reported to have gone through chemotherapy at this same hospital in Jeddah in the past.He is believed to be suffering from a complicated illness that has been generally described as Churg Strauss Syndrome .This may be the most plausible explanation for the president’s diminishing  vibrancy, and worrying  physical  frailty.By last week most Nigerians who thought the press had been hyping the president’s illhealth agreed  that all was not well and everyone seemed to agree  that the presidency had been too economical with the truth for too long.

In deed, Doubting Thomases about the seriousness of Ya’rAdua were jolted out of their reverie when reports began to emerge about plots to succeed YarAdua in the presidency.How could anyone be plotting to succeed a man who is still alive ? Was he dead? Do these people know what others don’t know? Whatever!

The most curious aspect was the report by The Punch on Saturday that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was under pressure to resign  by some shadowy power mongers.This pressure was to perhaps  facilitate the emergence of David Mark as interim president for three months within which a fresh presidential election would be held for yet another northerner to become president since by PDP’arrangement, the presidency has been zoned to the north.That was a disturbing report because Jonathan ought to succeed YarAdua and any other arrangement is bound to set the nation in crisis .Fortunatately the vice president through Ima Niboro  his special adviser on media debunked the report .Niboro said the veepee was not under pressure.

But the office of the vice president may also have been economical with the truth.It is an open secret that some politicians have accused former president obasanjo of deliberately anointing a sick YarAdua as president so that if anything happens to Yar’Adua, power will rotate to the South.Those who made this claim had also allegedly  said that they would not allow Jonathan to become president.How they will do it remains to be seen.

But those who look at the unfolding events simply as a north-south battle may be missing the point . Known facts indicate some politicians from the north and south who have benefited from Yar’Adua’s regime are not comfortable with  Jonathan .But this gang finds solace under the ‘northern umbrella’ to perfect their schemes. Some politicians including former governors may not be comfortable with Jonathan because they know the powers behind his choice as vice president. Some politicians are worried about the fact that Nuhu Ribadu, former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission EFCC and Nasir el Rufai ,the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory FCT were instrumental to the choice of Jonathan as Yar’Adua’s running mate .The duo of Ribadu and el Rufai checkmated Obasanjo’s move to make Peter Odili former governor of Rivers State   as the vice president .Rather than have Odili as Veepee, Ribadu and his friends recommended Jonathan whom Obasanjo accepted as a compromise candidate . Some politicians may fear that the emergence of Jonathan may provide a soft landing for his embattled benefactors and that could spell trouble for the ex governors who have been protected by Yar’Adua. But there is litle any one can really do about Jonathan since he is the only one the constitution recognizes as successor to Yar’Adua if there is any vacancy.

Some reassuring development occurred on Tuesday last week when some prominent Nigerians asked YarAdua to step down and allow Jonathan complete his term .The group said inter alia:``we are of the view that the President should immediately and unconditionally hand over to the Vice-President, Dr Goodluck Jonathan to complete the current term of office, and conduct the next general elections on the basis of the report of the electoral reform committee headed by Justice Mohammed Lawal Uwais.
The statement was reportedly signed by over 30 Nigerians such as
Alhaji Balarabe Musa ,Chief Olu Falae ,Senator Ken Nnamani ,Alhaji Aminu Masari Lt. Gen. Alani Akinrinade (Rtd) ,Chief John Odigie Oyegun ,Dr. Tunji Braithwaite ,Col. Abubakar Umar (Rtd) ,Prof. Itse Sagay (SAN) ,Alhaji Buba Galadima ,Hon. Olawale Oshun and Dr. Usman Bugaje. Other signatories include Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri  Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai ,Mr. Femi Falana ,Mr. Yinka Odumakin ,Alhaji Sadiq Yar’Adua ,Hon. Adamu Farouk Aliyu ,Chief Jos Ayomike ,Hajia Naja’atu Muhammeed ,Dr (Mrs) Joe Okei-Odumakin ,Ms. Annkio Briggs ,Mrs. Jumoke Anifowose ,Chief Supo Shonibare ,Mr. Odia Ofeimun ,Hon. Lawal Garuba,) Mr. Biodun Sowunmi ,Hon (Dr) Ishaq Kurufi ,Hon. Uche Onyeagocha ,Hon. Bashir Idris Nadabo and Kayode Ogundamisi .This group obviously believes in allowing the constitution take precedence  by calling on the president to handover to the Vice President. Another  group of northerners placed an advertorial last week insisting that the spirit and letter of the constitution must be followed.The group include Mohammed Haruna, Lai Mohammed, Dauda Birma,Audu Ogbe Col Hamid Ali Abba Kyai Clement Baiye General John Temlong(Rtd),Slomon Ewuga and Mohammed Bomoi among others.They said in the advertorial that``we the undersigned ,wish to state categorically that (God forbid, and we wish him well),in the event the president is unable to continue in office ,Vice President Goodluck Jonathan should immediately be sworn in as president as provided for by Section 144 of the 1999 CONSTITUTION.Any other ploy to bypass the constitution will have grave consequences for the evolution ,unity and integrity of Nigeria’’.What this advertorial means is that the claim that northerners are against Jonathan is pure fallacy cooked up to satisfy some shadowy interests unknown to the north

Even so, there are other sides to the succession crisis.Sources said even before YarAdua traveled for medical treatment in Jeddah that his illness had become an issue among his core loyalists.Most of them however thought did not figure that his health would suddenly deteriorate to the point of been rushed to Jeddah.That is why many had hoped that he would be supported to the end of his first term .There had however been serious campaigns among northern governors who were seeking to get Yar’Adua’s blessing to vie as president in 2011.Two governors are known to be very close to the heart of the president.They include Governors Namadi Sambo of Kaduna State and Isa Yuguda of Bauchi state.A source in the camp of yet another governor who is also eyeing the presidency said in Abuja that Yuguda has been seriously lobbying  to be annointed  but other governors are poised to resist it if YarAdua chooses the Bauchi state governor who is also the president’s son in law . It was also said that the reports which  recently claimed that Governor Sambo of Kaduna state had been choosen by the PDP caucus may be a serious hint of the serious battle to succeed Yar’Adua.Of Course , Sambo and his aides openly denied having any presidential ambition.They pledged loyalty to Yar’Adua.Other gladiators from the north known to be angling to succeed  the president in 2011 include Adamu Aliero, FCT minister, Governors Babangida Aliyu of Niger state , Mohammed Danjuma Goje of Gombe State ,Bukola  Saraki of Kwara State  and Sule Lamido of Jigawa State.But Lamido’s aides say such reports are untrue.They even blame the Jigawa state governor’s detractors for dragging his name among apirants.One aide said last week that Lamido may not be popular among his colleagues because he thinks out of the box and he has initiated policies that have exposed the laziness of some of his colleagues? ``Do you think they will support a man like Lamido?``, the aide asked .But this is Nigerian politics.And media reports last week seemed to suggest that former president Obasanjo may be plotting to install Lamido as vice president if Jonathan becomes president.

Last week, a source in Abuja named David Mark , and Obasanjo among those who may indeed influence the succession game considerably . One of those who spoke to the magazine claimed that Mark himself is actually eyeing the plum job . How he will make it remains unclear . No doubt ,his name was earlier mentioned as the one who may stand in if YarAdua’s election had been annulled by the Supreme Court .But  such hopes went with the wind  as the court  affirmed YarAdua’s election.

Though there were reports last  week  that the president might be flown home willy -nilly  to help  his loyalists end these succession plots like it happened in the past, there was no official confirmation of such move.Indeed why fly the president back home if he still needs serious medical attention as reports last Wednesday indicated? By the middle of last week too, it seemed increasingly clear to those who might be thinking of shoving Jonathan aside that it will be mission impossible.So the battle seemed to be shifting towards appointing a northerner as vice president if the need arises.

Such a northern vice president may have to come from the north west ,an observer said.Among those listed to be vying for such is Yuguda, perhaps hoping to cash in on his closeness to YarAdua’s family.But there are equally strong contenders like Senator Ahmed Makarfi .As a former governor of  Kaduna he came away as a very hardworking, brilliant and wise leader for a very combustible state like Kaduna.He ensured a very chummy relationship with former president Obasanjo.Makarfi was also in the 2007 presidential race but he gave way to YarAdua perhaps on Obasanjo’s prompting.If the opportunity presents itself, this may be a chance to take step into the presidency.One source said said Makarfi though hardly mentioned in the media, remains a strong contender if the battle for vice presidency kicks off.

How the succession battle will end remains unclear.What was clear as at press time was that President YarAdua remains alive,not dead and Goodluck Jonathan remains his loyal deputy.Only God can change things.Good fortune may just heal Yar’Adua and he may return to continue as president.That was the prayer of most Nigerians.