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Unknown to many, Generals Ibrahim B.
Babangida and Aliyu M. Gusau who are
bosom friends are engaged in a stiff
battle for Aso Rock in 2011.And Gusau's
appointment last week as National
Security Adviser, NSA complicates the
matter for the man generally called IBB
 Some
Nigerians in the diaspora are well aware
of his renewed ambition. Recently,
General
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida hosted them
at his Hilltop Mansion in Minna .The
meeting had one major item which
superceded every other issue that
cropped up. For IBB, it was an avenue
for him to open up to the people he
seems to hold in high regard. But in the
end some of the guests were left
wondering what he truly wants again
after he tried to convince his
associates about his ambition to contest
the 2011 elections and step back to Aso
Rock (Presidential Villa), Nigeria's
seat of power, which he left forcibly in
1993.
While leaving the seat of power after
the unfortunate annulment of June 12,
1993 presidential elections result, IBB
had said he was ``stepping aside''.
This has been variously interpreted to
mean that he was not yet done with the
seat of power and would seek to return
to the villa at the slightest
opportunity. From 2003 through 2007, IBB
sought to regain power but his plots did
not materialize. Coming back to the
villa as president has become an endless
obstacle race for him. He is on the
march again!
This time round, he appears very
determined to have his way. At the
recent meeting held with some Nigerians
in the diaspora in his residence, IBB
told them that he wants their support as
he has made up his mind to contest the
2011 presidential election. Of course
there has been no dearth of reports on
the gap -toothed general's ambition,
his wide reach and his famed
influence, but many had thought that he
would not go this far anymore after he
was forced out of the race in 2007 by
General Olusegun Obasanjo who did not
want IBB to succeed him. Those close to
the general in Minna say he feels
utterly betrayed by Obasanjo who failed
to keep to their accord which would have
seen him succeed Obasanjo in 2007.But
IBB appears to have moved on after the
disappointment by the Ogun State -born
general whom he thought he knew too
well. It is the immediate future that
seems to matter now.
It is not known if he recounted the tale
of how Obasanjo betrayed him to his
associates from the diaspora .But
sources at the meeting revealed to the
magazine that some of those present
mustered enough courage to 'drill IBB'
.They wanted to be sure of what they
would be doing. In particular, IBB was
asked why he still wants power-``Why do
you want to go back again?'' one of
those at the meeting asked.
That question seemed to have touched the
host's raw nerves. IBB pointedly told
his associates that he wants 'another
opportunity to correct the wrongs of the
past'. Of course, that is the obvious
answer he is likely to give. IBB did the
unthinkable by annulling the freest and
fairest election in which his bosom
friend Moshood Abiola had convincingly
won. Abiola never recovered from the
shock of that betrayal by his friend up
till his death in detention over his
struggle to revalidate his mandate.
Babangida and members of the regime have
not convinced Nigerians that IBB did not
kill Dele Giwa, the founding editor in
chief of Newswatch. The Killing of
General Mamman Vatsa and co over alleged
coup plot and the controversy over the
Pius Okigbo report on the Gulf war
windfall remain unresolved. IBB
frittered away a golden opportunity by
failing to appear before Oputa panel
which was constituted by the Obasanjo
regime to look into the abuses of the
military era.
These and many more issues that may not
even be known yet to the general public
may still be the burdens of history
weighing him down. That is why Babangida
told his friends matter-of-factly that
he is not seeking to contest for office
to make money. He revealed according to
a source that he has made enough money
that would last for generations; and
that he does not want to return to power
for the sake of filthy lucre. Perhaps to
show his seriousness in this regard, IBB
in what appears like some deliberate
dangling of carrots, vowed that he
would, if elected, be appointing
Nigerians in the diaspora as ministers
and directors-general of parastatals
because ``they have not been tainted
with the corruption and nepotic way of
life in Nigeria'' an insider said.
That was just one of the several
consultations that have been made of
late ahead of Babangida's public
declaration of interest. Reports say he
plans to announce his intention anytime
between April and June this year.
Insider weekly has however learnt that
Babangida's plot may have hit another
brick wall. Investigations have revealed
that General Aliyu Gusau is also
interested in becoming president. The
interesting thing is that the two
Generals have been like Siamese twins
and very close associates. But their
presidential ambitions this time around
have made them go their separate ways.
An insider who is aware of the intrigues
and the rift between them told Insider
weekly last week: ``you people always
think Gusau and IBB are together. People
don't even seem to know there is crack
within. The presidential ambition of the
two of them is making them go their
separate ways in seeking to actualize
their respective dream. They have fallen
apart, I tell you''.
Details of how the crack within are
shocking. The magazine learned that
apart from IBB personally meeting and
wooing people to his side, his
associates have been meeting too. Such
meetings have been held in Kano, Kaduna
and Abuja among others. At one of the
meetings, many of his friends made the
case for IBB echoing the need for him to
step back into Aso Rock.
His previous lack of firmness in
pursuing his ambition is said to be
rocking his planned ambition. There
appears to be some snags because the
magazine learnt that not every associate
of IBB is really convinced he wants to
come back in the real sense. Some
recalled the way their hopes were raised
in years past about the imminence of
IBB's open declaration for election,
only for him to chicken out. Many of his
associates are recounting how they
were disappointed as IBB beat a retreat
in the past. That may be why one of
IBB's close friends who is not known to
have attended any of the recent meetings
last week told the magazine he was not
sure yet that the man would run.``Yes, I
think Gusau is interested but that of
IBB I cannot confirm yet',' were his
words.
It was learned that the struggle for Aso
Rock by IBB and Gusau is laced with
hints of double dealing or outright
betrayal by some of their mutual
friends. In particular, IBB sources say,
may soon find out that some of those
whom he thought were his acolytes
working for him have actually jumped
ship.``You will be shocked to know that
some of these IBB people are also in the
forefront of the campaign for Gusau'',a
source revealed last week.
Truth is that while IBB has quietly kick
started his campaign; his friend Gusau
too began his bid to become president.
If IBB has not been told pointedly, he
may soon realize that some of his
cronies are actually fed up with him.
Insider weekly magazine learnt that some
of IBB's cronies who have even taken
part in meetings held for him have
turned round to attend pro-Gusau
meetings. And they seem to feel very
angry about IBB. Inside sources said
some of those who have chosen to
''betray IBB'' believe he ought to leave
the stage now. They hold the view Gusau
has been too loyal to IBB for too long
and now is the time for IBB to let go of
the political space for Gusau. They
accuse the former self-styled military
president of being selfish.
Insider weekly learnt that the plot to
have Gusau run as well was on the card
before his appointment last week as the
National Security Adviser NSA by Acting
President Goodluck Jonathan. Meetings by
IBB loyalists and those loyal to Gusau
were said to have intensified in
February, evidently upon the realization
that President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua may
not be well enough to run for a second
term.
Whether IBB is fully aware of this
double-dealing and disquiet within the
ranks of his ``followers`` was not quite
clear as at press time. But news reports
indicated that he too had been also
working hard to concretize his plans by
extending his political hands to the
Yar'Adua family of late. Newswatch last
week reported how he met with
representatives of the Turai Yar'Adua
wife of the ailing president in Abuja.
The former president pledged to protect
their interest if they support him.
Amazingly he reportedly offered to help
ensure that Yar'Adua is not removed from
Office.
Well, that plan appears to be yielding
fruit, as Turai apparently emboldened by
the support from IBB and his ilks has
remained indifferent to calls on her to
grant access to her husband since he
returned from Saudi Arabia. Even more,
there appears to be something quite
instructive about IBB seeking an
alliance with Turai.Is it for the famed
war chest of the first lady and her
cabal? What special advantage will the
cabal, which is obviously struggling to
keep its hold on power, bring to IBB's
campaign?. It may not be an exaggeration
to think that his resort to Turai may be
an indication of his weak position in
the unfolding scheme of things. And this
weakness may have pushed him into
desperately seeking new political
alliances. But Turai and her allies are
largely despised now especially because
of the shoddy, unwise and
unconstitutional manner they have
handled the Yar'Adua health and
succession crisis with some tendency
towards sit tight mentality inspite of
the obvious fact of the president's ill
health. Rather than sympathy and good
will the Yar'Adua cabal seems to attract
odium and opprobrium, so what does IBB
want from a such associates?
Insider Weekly learnt that the IBB plot
for the presidency may still be shrouded
in mystery to some of his associates
because even though he is vigorously
campaigning behind -the -scenes,
``nobody knows the political party he
intends to use yet. But one thing I
learnt is that he may not run on the
platform of the People's Democratic
Party, PDP; he doesn't seem to like PDP
or he is not comfortable with it'', a
source told the magazine.
It was further learnt that he may be
preparing to run on the ticket which may
have an ex-governor from one of the
states in the south west as his running
mate. The choice of a Yoruba running
mate, if it finally materializes may be
his way of atoning for his sins against
the region after he annulled the June 12
2003 elections. Many are likely to scoff
at this manner of atonement by asking:
``Why give them a veepee after denying
them the right to produce a president
who actually won an election?'' said a
Lagos-based lawyer. The magazine learnt
that there are other politicians like
Orji Kalu or Peter Odili or some dark
horses who may be considered as probable
running mates of IBB in what appear like
IBB's mercurial schemes. Some reports
even name former Governor James Ibori as
one of those being considered to be vice
president to IBB if he eventually
declares his intention.
Even ex Cross Rivers State Governor,
Donald Duke, has already declared his
intention to run again for President. He
reportedly made the declaration at the
Congress Hall Trade Union Centre, 28
Great Russel Street London, United
Kingdom. But he stopped short of
announcing the party's flag he intends
to fly. He was an aspirant who was
stopped in his tracks along with others
such as Odili, Obong Victor Attah and
Makarfi by former President Olusegun
Obasanjo. Duke reportedly felt deeply
angry about how Obasanjo betrayed him
and he also had a spat with YarAdua
because he believed he was better
qualified to be president. He later
tried to play down any hint of
differences between himself and the now
ailing president. But with the zoning
formula announced by PDP, many are
likely to feel Duke may be warming up
for the VP slot except he joins another
party. Still, IBB's plot remains an iffy
affair, full of doubts, twists and
unexpected turns.
One of the major spanners in the works
of IBB's ambition may be the emergence
of Gusau as the NSA. Some insiders said
last week that this appointment
complicates the issue for the former
military president. One even said
Jonathan's move may have compelled every
other aspirant from the North to go back
to the drawing board. The singular move
is said to be causing ripples. And many
are beginning to worry about what
Jonathan's intentions may be. Especially
so, given the feeling that even if
Yar'Adua cannot run for a second term on
grounds of ill health, the north should
produce the next president. But that
northern feeling is increasingly seeming
like wishful thinking in the light of
unfolding reality.
And the return of Gusau may be the real
game changer indeed. He is a renowned
spymaster .He has local and
international reach that is believed to
be second to none. He is credible within
the northern circles and therefore
highly respected by the elite for his
professionalism and reach. As a master
of his game, he comes to the Jonathan
regime with uncommon expertise. Yet some
were quick to remind everyone that some
riots like those in Kaduna happened
while he was NSA under Obasanjo. So the
news NSA needs to redouble his effort to
nip in the bud the security lapses that
have resulted in the recurrence of
violence such as Boko Haram, Kala Kato
and the seemingly intractable Jos
crises.
Gusau replaced Major General Sarki
Mukhtar who was sacked by Jonathan after
the resurgence of Jos mayhem in which
about 400 in some villages were
massacred by alleged Fulani pastoralists
who came under the cover of darkness.
But the police later put the number of
the victims controversially at 109
despite pictures of many who were buried
in mass graves that were reported by
local and international media .The Jos
crisis may just have been the last straw
that broke the camel's back in the build
up towards Mukhtar's sack. Insider
weekly learnt that internal
investigations have revealed he was the
backbone of the Turai cabal .He
allegedly plotted strategies for
checkmating Jonathan.One source even
claimed that at some point the former
NSA had an unfortunate clash with
Jonathan which some insider said was
like threatening the acting president.
The exact nature of the threat remains
unclear. He was said to be fully aware
of movement of Aso Rock Security
personnel including the controversial
deployment of troop without the
knowledge of the acting president. But
sources close to Mukhtar have reportedly
said Mukhtar too was unaware of the
deployment of troops. Gusau is expected
to resolve all the security problems
left behind by Mukhtar and some even
believe that with the new NSA, Turai’s
wall of obduracy around Yar'Adua may
soon cave in.
While Gusau worries about his immediate
challenge as NSA, others are known to be
looking beyond today. Some see the
writing on the wall about a resurgent
Jonathan who wants to put some hawks in
check in a respectable way. The first
casualty of this may be IBB who even if
he wants to be president on the platform
of PDP, it is now clear that it will be
mission impossible.
Politicians in the north believe the
coming of Gusau indicates that Jonathan
wants to check some of the ambitious
governors who seem to be running rings
round the acting president. Governors
from the north and some former governors
perhaps want to be president in
2011.Governors Isah Yuguda of Bauchi
state, Bukola Saraki of Kwara State,
Mohammed Danjuma Goje of Gombe State,
Babangida Aliyu of Niger State and Sule
Lamido are named among those either
wanting to be president or lobbying to
be vice president. Former Governor James
Ibori, Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan of
Delta state as well as Governor Timipre
Silva of Bayelsa state are known to be
secretly very much opposed to Jonathan.
So in the thinking of those reading the
unfolding events, Jonathan may just be
taking steps to stabilize the polity so
that he can run as president in
2011.Some Nigerians like Nuhu Ribadu are
reported to have said if Jonathan
performs very well nothing should stop
him from continuing .And many seem to
agree with Ribadu.
But Jonathan may need to tackle the
obstacles first and that includes some
ambitious governors who want his job
apparently desperately. Some of them are
known to have been dressing their
interest with a northern garb 'since it
is the turn of the north'. That is why
the PDP chairman; Vincent Ogbulafor was
pressured to make the declaration, which
seems to bar Jonathan from the 2011
race. But all that may not hold as
opinions within the party hierarchy are
said to be divided with some chieftains
calling on the race to be thrown open
for Jonathan and others to join. A
northerner told the magazine last
week:``I believe Gusau was brought in to
stabilize the polity and to check these
ambitious governors. You know he is a
smooth operator he can handle them every
well.” In fact, the reappointment of
Gusau took many watchers by surprise. It
is further believed that Jonathan may
give Nuhu Ribadu a prominent role to
play soon. ``I don't know whether Ribadu
may want the EFCC job again, but if he
brings him back, shake up the EFCC, sack
some ministers that will help him'', the
northerner told the magazine.
The acting president has taken some
measures now, which seem to give the
impression that he has a mind of his own
and that he may not be a weakling like
the Turai YarAdua- led cabal had sought
to portray him. The appointment of the
presidential advisory committee led by
General Theophilus Danjuma; the setting
up of panel to review performances of
federal projects and contracts and the
decision to send the Justice Uwais led
Committee report to the senate unedited
have all added portray Jonathan as
leader with his own focus and agenda.
The coming on board of Gusau too though
in confounding manner is seen as yet
another masterstroke. He was said to
have been preferred to Brigadier Halilu
Akilu whom PMNews said Babangida had
suggested as NSA to the acting
president.
The way things stand now 'IBB doesn't
stand a chance of becoming president'
were the words of an insider last week.
``Of course, perhaps except something
dramatic happens to change the shape of
things. And you know IBB, if he sees
danger and threat to his mystique, he
would backtrack and avoid being
demystified .He is good at beating a
retreat. You know so far he has failed
to announce his ambition. That is why I
have refused to believe he may run
until he declares his intention, I will
not believe what some of his associates
are telling us behind the scenes that he
wants to run'' an insider said
Knowledgeable northerners believe that
the 2011 game has started already. There
is the apparent feeling among some
Northerners, and quite surprisingly too,
that despite the claim of zoning which
ought to favour the north, it may be in
reality impossible to stop Jonathan from
standing for election in 2011.There are
those who actually believe that Gusau
may have been made NSA as a prelude to
his emergence as Vice President to
Jonathan in 2011.Hear a northern
politician``Iam not quite sure but I
foresee a situation whereby Gusau may be
the running mate to Jonathan in 2011 and
in 2015 Gusau may become president.'
That appears to be the most plausible
scenario, not the report that IBB may
run and keep Jonathan as vice president
again. That IBB/Jonathan scenario is
dismissed as highly unlikely. One
politician from the core north added:
``Jonathan will be naive if he
surrenders power in 2011.In fact it will
be foolish of him to do so. He has all
it takes to contain all those against
him. With Gusau and the sacking of
ministers, sack EFCC and bring in a few
people like Ribadu, Nasir el Rufai who
will help. The acting President has no
reason not to continue in 2011.All he
needs is to have capable men in place
and give the nation stability and good
governance and many Nigerians will
support him.''
So far Jonathan may go down as one of
the luckiest leaders that have ever
emerged in Nigeria. Even though his rise
to power as was a product of the
doctrine of necessity, he enjoys
overwhelming goodwill and support from
across the country. In fact General
Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abuabakar
were among the first to call for
transfer of power to Jonathan. Colonel
Abubakar Umar, who courageously resigned
his commission from the army after the
annulment of June 12 elections in 1993
also wrote a widely publicized letter
urging YarAdua to resign For God and
Country. Umar, known for his dogged
pursuit of justice has been a thorn in
the flesh of bad rulers of Nigeria.
Former heads of state, ex senate
presidents, former speakers house of
Representatives joined the campaign to
transfer power and feel the vacuum. It
is equally intriguing that a man elected
on the platform of PDP enjoys
overwhelming support from the Save
Nigeria Group SNG-made of pro-democracy
advocates - which has held two rallies
in Abuja calling on Yar'Adua to resign
and let Jonathan become substantive
president. The Save Nigeria Group
actually campaigns for the adherence to
the constitution.
Insider Weekly learned that last
Wednesday's rally by the save Nigeria
Group SNG was preceded by trepidation
within some circles. In fact on Tuesday,
alarm bells rang in some circles over
reports of strange movements of security
personnel. Whether they were being
deployed to avert calamity during the
rally was not clear. But there were
highly reliable reports that some
shadowy interests, which see the SNG as
a threat, had spent millions to mobilise
for a counter rally in support of
President Umaru Yar'Adua.
This fuelled the fear that filfth
columnists might infiltrate these
rallies and cause possible clashes
between SNG and the Pro YarAdua group.
The stage might thus be set for a
massacre of SNG members. But it would
appear that by Tuesday evening the
Jonathan presidency was fully aware of
the situation and assurances reportedly
later filtered out that the acting
president was indeed in control.
Insiders said there was no cause for
alarm. Reports of alleged movement of
security forces were equally down
played. Whether the alleged movement of
security forces was rumours or just a
show of strength to scare off potential
troublemakers remains unclear.
But on Wednesday last week, the SNG
rally was held successfully in Abuja.
Yinka Odumakin one of the stakeholders
said: “Section 144 must be invoked. We
are tired of a president we cannot see.
We need a president we can see, who can
talk to us, who can govern. Not one they
will be telling us that he said;
somebody saw him drinking tea, somebody
saw him playing with his grand children.
We want to see him and if we cannot see
him, we want a functional president.''
Among the campaigner that spoke at the
rally include General Alani Akinrinade,
Comrade Uba sani among others. At some
point the police barred the SNG from
getting close to the Presidential Villa.
The Enough is Enough campaigners were
calmed down by their leaders including
Tunde Bakare, Najatu Mohammed, Abdur
Rahman Ahmed and Femi Falana.
Interestingly Yayale Ahmed the secretary
to the federal government emerged at the
point where the SNG was stopped from
getting closer to Aso Rock Villa. Ahmed
who addressed the rally amidst protests
from the crowd said: “When we received
your request that you will like to hand
over a letter to Acting President
Jonathan, he directed the Secretary to
the Government, in my own person, to
come and receive it. I find it very easy
and natural to come and face you because
yours is a demonstration of democracy in
action in Nigeria,”
The SGF proceeded to make some stunning
revelations: “Your three basic demands
are noted. ``One, you want to know the
status of your president; it is because
you love your president that you want to
know his status, because you elected
him. Secondly, you want us to take
constitutional ways of dealing with it.
This government is a creation of the
constitution and we will do what the
constitution says. Thirdly, we are aware
of your concern regarding credible
election in this country. Only two weeks
ago, the Acting President handed over,
again, Uwais committee report unedited,
to the National Assembly.” That was the
first time Nigerians got to know of the
reversal of Yar'Adua's rejection of the
Uwais committee report. But Senator
Anthony Manzo later pooh-poohed this
claim when he said it was actually
Yar’Adua who sent the report to the
Senate. Manzo did not notice SGF’s use
of the expression “handed over again.”
The intense security during the rally
may be an indication that the security
agencies were determined to checkmate
the fifth columnists. John Ahmadu, AIG
alluded to this when he addressed the
protesters on their way to Aso Rock Hear
the AIG, ``we are here to give you all
the necessary protection while you
march. …(but) we want to take care of
those who may want to hijack your good
intentions for a bad intention, please
we urge you to go with our people
orderly. Until you leave, we shall not
stand down.”
If the cabal wanted to undermine the
rally, they failed, as the SNG protest
was a resounding success where the
protesters among others called for an
end to the invisible presidency of
Yar'Adua.
While the protesters recorded success,
those who want to succeed Yar'Adua are
now back to the basics trying to figure
out the Jonathan reality. How events
will shape up in the future remain
unclear. But for IBB and some northern
governors in PDP who have been eyeing
the presidency, the Jonathan factor may
put spanner in the works of their
ambition. Or will Jonathan truly give up
in 2011? Only time will tell.
Additional Report by
George Mbah |
