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Lessons of Ethiopia’s Development Model, By Temitope Oshikoya

“Ethiopia's state-led development model has delivered rapid economic growth, reduced poverty, and improved social welfare.” IMF McKinsey recently released a Report on “Lions on the Move II: Realizing the Potential of Africa’s Economies.” In the Report, McKinsey categorised African countries into three: stable growers, vulnerable growers, and slow growers. According to McKinsey, Stable growers group include ...

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Of Recession, Devaluation and Productivity Gaps, By Temitope Oshikoya

As the irrational exuberance and euphoria following the announcement to move towards a flexible exchange rate regime subside, we can now focus on the key fundamental productivity issues confronting Nigeria’s economy. We do this by examining global and Nigeria’s economic data, which enable us to separate empirical evidence and analysis from sensational polemics and rhetoric. Devaluation and Recession in Oil ...

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Who ‘Command And Control’ The Economy? By Temitope Oshikoya

 “Our political economy is run by a compact elite that is able to fuse the power of our public government with the power of private corporate governments in ways that enable members of the elite not merely to offload their risk unto us but also to determine with almost complete freedom who wins, who loses, and who pays.” Barry C. Lynn, author of the book Cornered: The New Monopoly of Capitalism “This is wha ...

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Buhari’s Brains Trust and the Change New Deal, By Temitope Oshikoya

“We must lay hold of the fact that economic laws are not made by nature. They are made by human beings.” U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt In the early 1930s, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) of the United States of America (USA.) won an election under a cloud of a Great Depression. During the Presidential campaign, he had been labeled the “Feather Duster Roosevelt”, an image that he later decis ...

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Resolving The Exchange Rate Regime Conundrum, By Temitope Oshikoya

At the height of the controversy on Nigeria's exchange rate regime generated by The Economist last year, this writer in an article dated 22nd July, 2015, on The Economist and the CBN, made the following concluding remarks as the way forward towards resolving the exchange rate regime conundrum that the country was facing then and still faces now. "Countries occupying the middle ground of monetary policy tril ...

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The MPC and Encouraging Non-Oil GDP Growth, By Temitope Oshikoya

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is cut between the hard rock and the deep sea. Inflation in February is likely to be much higher than originally anticipated given the volatility in the parallel market during that month. The huge differential between the parallel and interbank rate in February and recent fuel scarcity would likely result in significant one- off step increases in inflation. The MPC should ...

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It’s the productivity, stupid! By Temitope Oshikoya

Long-term real economic growth and prosperity are driven by increases in the number of workers and hours worked, and increases in output per hour. The first is determined by demography and the labour participation rate. The second, known as labour productivity, depends on improvements in the quality of labour, capital per worker, and total factor productivity (TFP). Labour quality reflects worker characteri ...

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The Economist’s Evidence On Devaluations, By Temitope Oshikoya

While the debate on devaluation has been ongoing in Nigeria, and some writers like to cite The Economist of London to justify their arguments about the efficacy of devaluation, they need to cast their net wide when reading about this subject matter in The Economist. We do not want to add too much of our own prose to the empirical and analytical evidence on devaluations which the authoritative Economist has ...

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False Alarms on Nigeria, By Temitope Oshikoya

"The prophets of gloom and doom are increasingly prolific and apocalyptic.” Peter Bernstein Recall the JP Morgan emerging market index episode of 2015. According to the high priests of voodoo market intelligence, the heavens would fall once Nigeria got ejected from the index. Lest you forget, some had also predicted that Nigeria would disintegrate in 2015. Talk about the mix of wind, sun, and fire. These pr ...

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Devaluing the Devaluation Delusions, By Temitope Oshikoya

“I am not here (in Nigeria) nor is my team in this country to negotiate a loan with conditionality….”However”, there could be more added flexibility in the monetary policy...” Christine Lagarde, IMF’s Managing Director.Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director (MD) of the IMF is currently visiting Nigeria. Following her meetings with the Nigerian Authorities including President Buhari, the IMF’s MD was at pa ...

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The 2016 Budget, Nominal and Real Oil Prices, By Temitope Oshikoya

“Beware of the wisdom of the crowds”-- James SurowieckiOn Tuesday, 22nd December, 2015, President Buhari finally unveiled the 2016 Budget of Change. In several respects, the budget is bodacious: a blend of the bold and the audacious. The presentation of Buhari’s Bodacious Budget (The Triple B) has focused more on the attempt to walk the talk on the electoral poll change trinity of security, economy, and cor ...

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MPC: Behind the curve, Playing Catch-up, By Temitope Oshikoya

“With employment so far from its maximum level and with inflation running below the Committee’s 2 percent objective, I believe it’s appropriate for progress in the labor market to take center stage in the conduct of monetary policy……In current circumstances, forward guidance can lower private sector expectations regarding the future path of short-term rates……leading to more accommodative financial condition ...

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