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Although the 2011 presidential election is still two years away, intrigues are building up and have begun to heat up the polity. The same characters that have dominated the political field since 1998 have not given up. Early last week, Atiku Abubakar visited former President Olusegun Obasanjo at his Abeokuta home. There have been several denials and speculations on the motive behind the visit. But a source close to Atiku told LEADERSHIP SUNDAY that the former vice president is warming up to run for president in 2011 under the ruling party's ticket. It is a prospect that is currently rocking the PDP and giving the incumbent leader, President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, sleepless nights. The source said that Yar'Adua, due to his health challenges, may not run in 2011 and that last week’s meeting between Atiku and Obasanjo was to prepare the stage for Atiku's eventual emergence as the nation's next president.

But Garba Shehu, Atiku’s media man, has denied the insinuation, noting that although Atiku will contest the 2011 presidential poll, there is no talk yet about the party under which he will run. He said Atiku himself did not indicate whether he would run on the AC ticket. According to Shehu, the AC itself is undergoing changes and may change its name in future to accomodate other parties. He said Atiku is still in AC.

In a reaction yesterday, a founding father of the PDP, Isyaku Ibrahim, noted that Atiku’s calculations are "simplistic and unrealistic," stressing that the former VP's political career has been ruined by the visit.

Ibrahim said: "Atiku exhibited naiveté to think that PDP would give him the ticket in 2011. No serious politician would consider such a person worthy of the party's ticket. Atiku's best bet was to build the AC. But if he thinks some funny governors who said they are controlling the party would get him the ticket, he is joking and naïve. He is just an opportunist; if he tries it I will work against him. Not just me but those he betrayed. Atiku had close political confidants and followership that he didn't even inform about his meeting with Obasanjo. That shows he lacks principles. Remember, many people left the PDP for his sake, and only for him to do this? He didn't even have the common decency to tell his running mate in the last election, neither did he consult his associates."

On the explanation given by both Atiku and Obasanjo over the meeting, Isyaku said: " That is preposterous. If Obasanjo said they met to help this country, was he not the one who destroyed Nigeria in the first place? They were there together; what did they do? He brought Nigeria to its knees. In some countries like China, Obasanjo would have been publicly executed. But I don't blame them. Atiku and Obasanjo are not politicians. I consider their meeting as that of a retired soldier and a customs officer. Not men schooled in hard politics. Real politics is too serious for this kind of mockery."

Last Thursday, Atiku shunned his party, the Action Congress, which held its NEC meeting in Abuja. For many observers, this was a clear sign that Atiku was prepared to dump the AC, the party that failed to win for him the presidential election held in April 2007. Atiku's spokesperson explained that his principal was not a member of the NEC. But a source confided in LEADERSHIP SUNDAY that Atiku’s running mate in the last election, Ben Obi, was shocked at the reported meeting between Obasanjo and Atiku, saying that he was not contacted.

Yar'Adua's precarious position

Perharps owing to Yar’Adua’s health profile and other considerations, pundits wonder if he would be fielded by his party come 2011. Conspiracy theories abound, but the foremost is that Obasanjo himself is not disposed to supporting a second term for the incumbent. A source noted that from the meeting of Atiku and Obasanjo, it is clear that " Yar'Adua's goose is cooked".

The source noted that even Yar'Adua himself knows that he is not going to run for a second term, stressing that shortly after he returned to the country from the U.S. Atiku hinted that he would run for the 2011 presidential race, a fact which Yar'Adua himself acknowledged. This was when the Supreme Court was yet to deliver judgement on the appeal he filed challenging the election of President Yar'Adua.

The declaration of interest to run for the 2011 presidential election, according to another Atiku confidant, meant that Atiku had already conceded defeat, "having known the outcome of the judgement of the apex court before it was delivered. By implication, it meant he must have had some sort of agreement with both the president and his men".

Continuing, he said: "Those people you see that are not disposed to Atiku's coming back to the PDP are people that were not privy to the series of meetings held on this issue. They are the ones that are also benefiting from the current administration, and that is why they want to force Yar'Adua to stay behind and have a second term against his wish. If they understood the politics that has been going on for some time now, they would not be against his return to the party. I believe a section of the leadership of the party is aware of this agreement and they can never oppose it."

A divided PDP

Following the confusion engendered by the meeting of two foes, former President Obasanjo and his former deputy Atiku Abubakar, the leadership of the PDP is completely divided over the anticipated return of Atiku to the party.

Atiku, a founding member of the PDP, dumped the party for the AC, under which platform he hoisted his presidential ambition in 2007. He left the PDP during the heat of his face-off with his former boss, Obasanjo.

Surprisingly, Atiku paid a courtesy visit to Obasanjo at his residence in Abeokuta, Ogun State, Monday, and he was led by a PDP governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola of Osun State.

A statement issued on Wednesday by the Atiku media office in Abuja explained that "the meeting was not about the 2011 presidential election as some people have misinterpreted it. The two leaders decided to bury the hatchet and focus their attention, redirect their energies, and harness their collective experiences for the benefit of the country". But leaders of the PDP who confided in LEADERSHIP SUNDAY revealed that "this is purely part of the preparation of grounds for him (Atiku) to come back to the PDP".

A member of the current National Working Committee (NWC) of the PDP, who pleaded anonymity because the party has not taken a position on the visit, told LEADERSHIP SUNDAY that "the meeting is basically part of the re-alignments for the 2011 presidential election. Nigerians should not be deceived by any section or person that it was to look into the state of the nation that the two leaders met. No. It is purely part of the programmes that will usher Akitu back to the party, before or after the convention which will hold any moment from now".

"Already, this move has started generating bad blood in the rank and file of our party. Many of our members see it as a stab on the back of Yar'Adua by Obasanjo. Some of the leaders are thinking this might be part of the plot to stop Yar'Adua from getting a second-term ticket. This group to which I belong will fight to frustrate the ambition of the former number two citizen," the source said.

Going by the provisions of the constitution of the PDP, Atiku needs a membership period of at least two years to be eligible to contest for the presidency on its platform.

Another source who spoke to our correspondent noted that Atiku's trip to Ota was self-serving and aimed towards achieving his life-long ambition to be the president of Nigeria.

Noting that there was noting wrong in his coming back to the party he helped to form, a ranking officer of the Senate, who preferred anonymity, stated: "This is the time we have been waiting for. It is now that the business of politicking will start in earnest. The present administration, which has seemed rather lukewarm in the discharge of her duties, will now know that if it does not perform, another agile person is waiting next door to kick her out. The 2011 election will be based purely on performance. There's no way Yar'Adua will have an automatic return ticket. He must convince the people that he deserves it through his performances.

"Yes, he might feel betrayed by Obasanjo, but what he is doing is a complete embarrassment not only to Obasanjo, who helped a great deal to bring him to power, but also to our great party and its leadership. The president seems to have lost focus on all areas and he is taking the country over 20 years behind where Obasanjo left it, and people expect him (Obasanjo) to keep mute.

"What Atiku did was the most appropriate thing to do and that is what we advised him to do. The party leadership is already aware of the development and they are making the necessary preparations to receive him when he finally returns."

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